Rob Adams: 13/8.I want to play fairly safe here. The race is still close, plus being hit hurts my offense. And I may roll 6,6 next turn. However, the criteria for a safe vs. bold play seem to indicate that I can play somewhat aggressively here. The inner board strength is equal, I have an advanced anchor, and I'm behind in the race. Lets see what the choices are:
6/3*, 11/9 ... 19 shots including the 6,3 double hit.
6/3*, 13/11 ... 17 shots
6/3*/1* ... 11 shots
13/11, 13/10... 10 shots
13/8 ... 5 shots
11/8, 6/4 ... 0 shots
6/3*, 13/11 looks at least as good positionally as 6/3*, 11/9 since it makes the 11pt. With the 5pt open, this is quite valuable. So I'll eliminate 6/3*, 11/9. All the other choices look possible to me, though.
So is hitting or double hitting necessary? White does have 3 builders ready to make the 4pt. But that is a point I'm not likely to get anyway. Hitting is surely better than not hitting, but is it worth the extra shots? To answer that, we need to know Blue's game plan. How is Blue going to win this game? Blue still has 4 checkers on the midpoint, so a priming game, not a blitz, seems indicated. 6/3*/1* would be played more to keep White off balance and gain time to put a prime together rather than to win a blitz. But this takes a valuable spare from the 6pt and buries it on the ace point. Of course it is bad if it is hit, but even if not hit, it will probably need to be covered which will mean burying another checker out of play. This isn't likely to lead to a winning game plan. 6/3*, 13/11 could however. This makes the 11pt and leaves the 3pt slotted for a future prime from the 3 to 8 pts. I'll guess the 6 extra shots are worth it.
Of the non-hitting plays, only 13/11, 13/10 makes the 11pt. But this leaves 10 shots at the checker on the 10pt. This may be too many. 11/8, 6/4 needs to be considered since it is immediately safe. But it loses the builder on the 11pt. This will make it difficult to put a prime together. I do like getting the spare to the 8pt, though. 13/8 also does this but keeps the builder on the 11pt. There are many fewer shots at this blot than at the one on the 10pt. Of these, I'll choose 13/8 leaving a medium number of shots while retaining future priming possibilities.
So, comparing 13/8 to 6/3*, 13/11: 13/8 leaves 12 fewer shots and brings a spare to the 8pt. 6/3*, 13/11 makes the 11pt, hits, and slots the 3pt. Certainly hitting is better if not hit back, but that is a lot of shots to leave. If it were easier to recirculate a hit checker, this wouldn't be such a big problem, but White already has a decent prime. I'll choose 13/8.
Nigel Alsop: 6/3*, 3/1*.
I found this problem the most difficult, my first instinct is to play 13/11, 13/10 maximise my chance to block, the trouble with this it leaves White to many good throws. Quite like 6/3*, 3/1* takes away the whole of Whites move, not keen on leaving a direct shot if there is a better alternative, maybe 13/11, 6/3* does a lot if it comes off, extra shots unfortunately. Blue owns the cube so he is in the game to the end, I think I have talked myself into 6/3*, 3/1*
John Bakovic: 13/11, 6/3*.
Only question here is to double hit or to hit and cover the 11-point. The making of the 11 point may prove to be valuable in the future, also I don't like putting a checker on the one point unless I have to.
Chuck Bower: 13/11, 13/10.
With the untrapped anchor and cube ownership, Blue is in decent shape here.The point both sides are aiming at is Blue's 5-point. Both of theseobservations make desperate hitting plays unnecessary. Two plays giveBlue his best chances of making the 5-point: 13/8 and 13/11, 13/10.Looking at the positives, 13/8 keeps a spare on the midpoint and leavesonly 6 shots compared to 10 after 13/11, 13/10. OTOH, 13/11, 13/10 hasthe advantage of making a valuable point (the 11-point). The dowside ofstripping midpoint may be overemphasized since, owning the 11-point, Blue can give up the midpoint. Normally building points takes precedence over maintaining good distribution. I'm building the 11-point: 13/11,13/10.
Steve Clark: 6/3*, 3/1*.
The safe plays do not really attract me. Since White has advanced a checkerin our front court, I think we should hit it. Once we have hit it, it seemsperfectly natural to play on to the ace point and hit a 2nd checker. Whatabout covering our blot on the 11 point? Often this is the right thing todo. This would leave us with a play of 13-11, 6-3. That could be the rightplay. Actually as in problem 5, I think the 2 choices have very similarequities. I will hit 2.
George Klitsas: 13/8.
Hitting on my three point does not look like a bad idea , but there is not enough ammo in range and my eight point is stripped. Being behind in the race - therefore ahead in timing - I will go for a positional approach (13/8). I leave a few indirect shots, much less than the more ambitious 13/11 13/10, which leaves me with two stripped points, as well (the mid and the eight point).
Rob Maier: 6/3*, 3/1*.
The blitz doesn't look likely, but it is another way to win. The timing is just about as bad as it can get for a three point game, so mixing it up has little to lose.
Snowie: 6/3*, 3/1*.
So many good things can happen when the opponent is on the bar, and thesegood things happen more when he has two checkers on the bar. White hasthe blockade, but my inner board is as strong as his. This argues foran attacking play, and the double-hit is the best attacking play available.
Marty Storer: 13/11, 6/3*.
The 11 point is valuable as a base for building and control.The 3 point is a useful point. I don't want to give White the full roll toimprove. Hitting twice is a bit disjoint; attacking chances aren't greateven if White misses the direct shot. Hitting loose on the 3 point andmaking the 11 seems like the right mix of priming and attacking potential.
Bob Stringer: 13/11, 13/10.
Although I have an anchor, I have to be a little careful because Whitehas a good structure. For that reason I don't care for a loose hitunless it's 6/3*, 3/1*, giving White no options on his next roll.Better than that, though, I prefer trying to improve my own structure,which means 13/8 or 13/11, 13/10. The former leaves 3 less shots thanthe latter, and brings a builder down to a good spot, but 13/11, 13/10makes another point - one that goes well with the open 5 point - andprovides better outfield coverage. All in all, I think thoseadvantages compensate for the extra shots.
Casper van der Tak: 6/3*, 3/1*.
Blue is not going to win the priming contest from this position, especially given the dice, so attack, build points, and escape from White's bloackade before it gets stronger. 32 is a pretty good shot for the attacking plan, whereas it is poor for priming. I don't think this is a difficult decision; it is a question of the right game plan to follow, and only the double hit implements the attacking plan in a consequent manner.
Kit Woolsey: 13/11, 6/3*.
Every asset counts. The 11 point could come in handy in the future,particularly with my five point open. Hitting loose on the threepoint is thematic -- unstacking the heavy six point and keeping Whiteoff-balance as well as starting a point I would like to make.
Chris Yep: 13/8.
6/3*/1*, putting two up and taking away all of White's next roll, is a serious candidate. It's drawback is that it may be difficult to cover and Blue may have to strip his 6 point to do so. Still it may be right. Several other moves also look strong. Although I'm not sure, I like 13/8, which leaves 3 checkers on both the 8 point and midpoint. As a natural consequence of being behind in the race, Blue has more timing. Thus, it looks natural to bring builders down. Of the building moves I prefer 13/8. In return for the 6 shots that it leaves (compared to 11/8 6/4 which leaves no shots; on the other hand note that 13/11 13/10 leaves 10 shots while not substantially improving the number of builders for the key 5 and 7 points [since Blue doesn't want to have to break the 8 point to make the 5 or 7 point]), it provides better outfield coverage as well as providing an extra builder for the 9 point.
Summary: There were several competing themes, but the popular choicewas the double-hit. I'm afraid I can't see it. Blue doesn't have enoughammunition to carry out a blitz, and locking up the 11 point has to be ofplenty of value. Apparently I am missing something here.
