Alan Alsop: 11/8, 11/7.Not to sure what to do here. Blue has no flexibility and too many gaps in his blockade. I believe Blue has to push for a position and this means leaving a blot. Breaking from the midpt is not on, so lets go from the 11 pt, which gives flexibility.
Chuck Bower: 11/8, 6/2.
The big race lead argues against leaving a direct shot herewhich narrows down the choices considerably.
Blue may be able to win this game without making the 5-point,but that will be tough. Right now the checkers on the8- and 10-points are frozen so the only direct buiders areon the 6- and 11-points. Blue can increase his chances ofmaking the 5-point next turn by moving onechecker from the 11-point to the 8-point. The only remaining4 that doesn't leave a direct shots is 6/2 -- not pretty butprobably called for to protect the race lead.
White will surely hit with his six 7's, but even then Bluegets 15 return shots at White's blot in his homeboard plusdeuces to return hit on the fresh blot on Blue's 11-point.Seems worth the risk to create a new builder.
George Klitsas: 11/8, 6/2.
Blue does not solve his problems if he leaves a blot on the mid or the 10 point and is missed. Leaving an indirect shot (with White having a blot of his own on his 4 point) and creating a spare at the same time, is another story, so 6/2 11/8 gets my vote.
Snowie: 6/3, 6/2.
I am ahead in the race, and I have escaped all my back checkers. The planis to come home safely, and that means leaving no shots. 6/3, 6/2 may bea bit ugly, but I'm not stripping the six point and I am starting theuseful three point. There simply is no need to leave a shot now with aposition which I may be able to bring home without leaving any shots at all.
Marty Storer: 11/8, 6/2.
It's tempting to volunteer a direct shot, but I think thepartly weenie play gives enough flexibility to allow the luxury of delay.Blue has 11 ways to clear the midpoint safely if not hit, and the 8-pointbuilder makes 6 of the other numbers (63, 31, 41) into good point-makers.If the race were, say, 20 pips closer, Blue might volunteer, not wantingto hurt racing equity with ugly dumpage. Here, Blue's lead seems enoughto allow a bit of ugliness in service of the time-honored Heap and LeapAttack. Given the racing lead, 13/9 13/10 doesn't seem vastly betterafter a miss than 6/2 11/8; at least not superior enough to warrant thedirect shot.
Bob Stringer: 13/10, 13/9.
I'm ahead in the race, but with all those stripped points it's noteasy to bring everyone around. Given White's one-point board, I'llpay now before I have to do something really awkward.
Casper van der Tak: 6/3, 6/2.
It is a very close call between the stodgy 6/2 6/3 and 13/10 13/9. 6/2 6/3 seems playable enough, so I leave no shots. It is probably quite close in this position though, and I could be convinced that 13/10 13/9 or even 11/7 11/8 is better than leaving nothing. Not much analysis I can offer here - just play safe and wait for better numbers.
Kit Woolsey: 13/10, 13/9.
I don't like the thought of burying more checkers behind White's anchorin this position. My play clears the midpoint for good, and gives me thepotential to make the blocking nine point or even the five point in thefuture. If White hits it is not the end of the world, since White's boardis weak. Other approaches only ask for trouble in the future afterWhite has beefed up his board.
Chris Yep: 13/10, 13/9.
Blue has a collection of stripped outfield point, which could cause him problems as he tries to bear in against White's advanced anchor. At the same time, White also has an awkward position (1-point board, stripped outfield point, an inner board blot). Since Blue has a big race lead, he has more incentive to leave a shot now, while White still has a weak front position. While Blue can play totally safe (6/3 6/2), this dumps 2 checkers behind White's anchor, including one checker mostly out of play (an extra checker on the 2 point). In addition it only leaves one checker on the 6 point and fails to address the problem of Blue's stripped outfield. Blue can also play mostly safe (11/8 6/2), but this suffers from many of the same problems. Instead, I believe Blue should pay now by clearing an outfield point. Thematically it makes sense to clear from the back, i.e. by playing off the midpoint. I like 13/10 13/9 over 13/6. 13/6 stacks another checker on the overloaded 6 point and still leaves a stripped outfield. In contrast 13/10 13/9 adds a spare to the 10 point and creates at least a temporary builder on the 9 point (if it can't be used to build a new point next turn Blue will generally lift it).
Summary: How safe is safe? The panel was quite divided on thisinteresting problem. I must admit that I am still as confused about theposition as everybody else.
