| 157 135 |                          | White money game Blue |
Problem #4 Play Votes Score17/14, 9/8 5 10013/9 4 908/5*, 6/5 3 809/8, 6/3 2 70
Chuck Bower: 17/14, 9/8.
There is a lot of temptation to make to 5-point, especially when the runningalternative (17/14, 9/8) leaves a whopping 18 return shots. OTOH, I count 23 returns after pointing on White's head on the 5-point, including 3 blots. A tough decision. Five extra shots isn't a bad trade for the 5-point, but three blots vs. one gives me pause.
"Ahead in the race, then race!" is a standard axiom. This may be an exception, but I don't think so. White has solid offense and defense, so Blue cannot hope for a quick win. But Blue has a big race lead and decent timing, and a positional struggle seems to favor White. 17/14, 9/8 won't earn Blue a Medal of Honor, but it might win the game.
Steve Clark: 8/5*, 6/5.
17-14, 9-8 is the direct route home. We are well ahead in the race andthis is the mostly likely way to stay ahead. Unfortunately we would beleft without any structure and the blot on the 14 would be subject tomany shots. This could be the right play but I will look elsewhere.
Of the other plays, each builds some useful structure but leavesvulnerable blots in return. It is always difficult in these situationsto balance the risk versus gain of each resulting position. Clearly, ifI make the 5 point, I leave the most blots around, but I do make thebest point and put White on the bar as well. I am willing to take somesubstantial risks because this play gains in two ways. I will play 8-5,6-5.
Doug Doub: 8/5*, 6/5.
Yes, I could make a safer play of 9-8, 6-3 or 17-14,9-8, but this game has a long way to go. Our 5pt is extremely valuable forcoming home against a 4pt anchor, and we can make it while putting White onthe bar and unstacking our 6pt. My play leaves a lot of shots, but I thinkthat the lasting value of having a made 5pt more than compensates.
Ray Fogerlund: 13/9.
I like this play, it is simple and solid. Making the 5point is a little optimistic, it seems to me. I would like to get missed, which can happen easily enough, and then I would like to have the maximum number of landing spaces. This play makes an additional safe spot on the 9 point. If I get hit, I will shuffle checkers around these points and behind White while I am positioning my back man for his eventual escape.
Ilia Guzei: 13/9.
I am ahead in the race so I want to race. To do so successfully I need to provide landing places for my checkers and 13/9 makes one. The 9 point is also a blocking point and this is enough to tip the scale. 9/8 6/3 makes an inner board point which is important for a hit/hit back sequence and there are as many hitting numbers for White (24). 17/14, 9/8 leaves the fewest (17) hitting numbers but is inflexible. I believe the three plays are very close and don't know which factor is predominant.
George Klitsas: 8/5*, 6/5.
It's hard to visualize how Blue led himself to this mess, but, at least, he managed to have a healthy lead in the race. I am quite sure that the best play is by far the wide-open 8/5* 6/5, risking numerous double (return) hits, but making the most needed point on the board. By potentially giving back voluntarily some pips to White (in analogy with the chess master who returns to his opponent some of the sacrificed material, in order to consolidate his position), Blue can obtain a strong and quite playable position in most variations. All other moves are much weaker and will lead to consolidation problems later, even if they survive the immediate hits.
Laila Leonhardt: 17/14, 9/8.
The cube has been turned, Blue is well ahead in the race and White has asmall prime with good potentials.Blue does not wish to end up behind White's prime again having nothinghimself to counter prime with and therefore should try to make the safestrun for home.
Snowie: 9/8, 6/3.
Making the five point and leaving three blots is way too loose. I needsome structure in this position. That blot on the three point is aneyesore -- it needs to be covered. Once that blot is covered I canslug it out with White if necessary, but with that blot sitting thereI am at the mercy of the dice. It is worth a couple of extra shotsto get that blot covered.
Marty Storer: 9/8, 6/3.
White's midpoint is stripped, so many of his hitting numbersforce him to break that point. Therefore Blue doesn't necessarilymind leaving the blot on the 17 point. He can try the simple17/14 9/8, which minimizes shots and gets closer to home, buthalf of White's numbers hit, and Blue's inner-board blot makesit hard to come back at White after being hit. I think the bloton the 3 point is the key; if Blue is hit, he'd much rather havea second inside point than a blot in his board. Making the 9point is strong, but the value of the 3 point seems moreimportant over the next several rolls. Making the 5 pointleaves too many blots and shots for me; it seems unnecessary,particularly in the face of White's advanced anchor.
Bob Stringer: 13/9.
The eye naturally goes to making the 5 point, but it has to berejected because it leaves three blots and 21 shots. 9/8, 6/3 givesBlue a crummy structure - and it succeeds in doing so when Blue stillhas to worry about the blot on the 17 point. 17/14, 9/8 also gets youthe ugly structure, but is the better racing play; if White misses theblot on the 14, Blue has a somewhat decent chance of bringing all hismen around the board. But I prefer 13/9, since it puts real pressureon White's 3 back men. The blot on the 17 certainly is exposed -- adefinite downside to my play -- but at least if White hits it from themidpoint, he pays the price of dividing his army in half when he hastoo many men back. This was not a good roll, and White has the betterposition, so I prefer attempting to improve Blue's game to trying totippy-toe home.
Casper van der Tak: 17/14, 9/8.
Blue is a lot ahead in the race, and the challenge is to bring the position home. Building the 5-point can be discarded, since it leaves too many returns that harm Blue's game plan (running). The other three plays all have merit: 13/9 unstacks the midpoint and makes a useful landing point while safetying a blot; 9/8 6/3 makes an inner point, useful for any exchange of hits, and safeties a blot; and 17/14 9/8 safeties a blot and brings the rear checker closer to home.
How to choose between the three reasonable plays? First, let's count hits:
* 17/14 9/8: 18 hits
* 9/8 6/3: 24 hits
* 13/9: 24 hits
Advantage to 17/14 9/8; 9/8 6/3 and 13/9 ex aequo.
Severity of the hits:
The hits are worst after 17/14 9/8, since Blue loses the most pips and has the weakest forward position. Best 9/8 6/3, in the middle 13/9.
Position after non-hits
* Best after 17/14 9/8 (closest to home)
* Second best after 13/9 (additional landing point)
* Third best after 9/8 6/3
Considering all these factors, 17/14 9/8 seems best followed by 9/8 6/3 (the advantage that 9/8 6/3 has over 13/9 in the case of hits occurs twice as often as the disadvantage after the non-hit), then 13/9 and 8/5* 6/5 comes in last.
Kit Woolsey: 17/14, 9/8.
Our racing lead, White's anchor, and White's strong offense argue for playingas safely as possible and trying to run on home. This play leaves onlyone direct shot, and that is from a stripped midpoint. Other plays arestructurally a little better, but immediate safety appears to be moreimportant.
Chris Yep: 17/14, 9/8.
Ahead in the race by 26 pips with only 1 back man against White's 21 point holding game, I believe Blue should just try to come home safely. Note that if Blue plays 17/14, White will often have to break his midpoint to hit next turn. Blue will eventually want the 5 point, so 8/5* 6/5 is a nice structural improvement. However it leaves 3 blots and a lot of shots, so it doesn't seem worth it. I like 17/14 9/8, playing with only one outfield blot, while still keeping a decent offensive structure.
Summary: A nice problem, with all the candidates getting somesupport from the panel. The safest play won out, but it is far fromclear what is really correct.