Alan Alsop: 18/10.The prime must stay as this is doing a good holding job on White. White needs 5's and 6's to break from this blockade. Blue on this move must hold the 2 point or White will attack. Blue is behind in the race but still in a strong position especially if White throws small numbers and breaks from the 8 point. Unfortunately the throw leaves few options for Blue. Keeping the mid point is necessary for the future. So it leaves the direct shot on the 10 point opening up the game if hit or blocking White in hopefully.
Chuck Bower: 18/15, 13/8.
I see no reason to give up the anchor here (which, given my recent perfromance, probably means this is the best ploy!). Blue is way behind in the race and White's spares are awkwardly stacked. 23/18 let's White off the hook too often. For the alternatives, let's take a look at how White's singles play. If left alone on the the 22-point, 6's pop out. If pointed upon, 1-6 is awkward but other entering 6's are OK. 5's always play 6/1. 4's and 3's are usually bad if White is left alone, but not so otherwise. 4-4 is particularly ugly if Blue just keeps the 8-point. 2's and 1's play comfortably from the stacked 6-point, regardless.
Giving up the 8-point doesn't look right here, based upon the above singlesaccounting. 18/13, 6/3* makes 1-6 and 2-6 awkward, but leaves most otherentering numbers playable. 18/15, 13/8 results in White blots with several3's and 4's, and adds a useful spare to the 8-point. White's blot on theacepoint makes this move reasonably safe. Keep the 8-point, don't giveWhite any jokers, and give White the chance to toss an awkward number. 18/15, 13/8 does all of that so it gets my vote.
Steve Clark: 23/18, 6/3*.
What is it about this problem that makes me want to play 23-18, 6-3?One of the basic principle when playing against a high anchor is that itis bad to hit behind the anchor, particularly when our opponent has thestronger board. I can't fully explain this although I can see part ofthe reason. I certainly want to play 23-18 whenever I get the chance.The easiest way to lose this position is for my back men to remaintrapped on the 23 point. But if I play the 5 this way, where does the3 go? 5-2 is safe but ugly beyond words. And there is no other 3available except 6-3. Besides if I do play 6-3, this will make it moredifficult for White to untangle his checkers on his 6 point. The hittends to protect my remaining blot on the 23 point.
Well what about a different play altogether? 18-10 seems to have somelogic, but it does leave direct shots and does leave those men back onthe 23 point. Maybe the checker on the 10 will not be hit and I canbuild the 10 point next roll. This all seems a little unlikely to me.
Another possibility is to make the 3 point. We get a checker on the barbut I really would rather keep my points in front of White's anchorrather than building behind it.
This play may look a little strange but I still like 23-18, 6-3.
Doug Doub: 23/18, 6/3*.
Outfield control is the name of the game here. Iwould like to run all the way, but that makes it too easy for White toattack us inside. He does have a stronger board and twelve men in theattack zone. Hitting him on the 3pt stops him from effectively attacking usinside, starts a good point, and prevents his escape, while enabling us tomaintain our presence in the outfield as much as possible.
If I play 18-13, 6-3*, I'm concerned about getting stuck on the deucepoint. This roll enables me to free one of those men while making apotentially useful point, and it would be a shame to pass that up.
Ray Fogerlund: 8/3*, 6/3.
I don't know what is better, so why over think it?Just make the point and see what happens. Blue controls the outfield completely. If making the 3 point was not available I might try stepping out to the bar and hitting loose on the 3 point, and old style "pure" play. Bots hate blots, and I have learned to, also... Good luck!
Ilia Guzei: 18/10.
This is a priming battle and the timing is likely to go Blue's way. This play keeps all my assets intact and threatens to make another blocking point while somewhat duplicating White's sixes which he needs to hit or to escape the back checker. However, I do not believe this duplication is significant. 8/3, 6/3 is a play for a different game plan and after either play White has many uncomfortable numbers. Kit often says one never knows what good things may happen while the opponent is on the bar but what will I follow up the attacking play with? My 5's will be duplicated and White will be given a chance to maintain his blockade.
George Klitsas: 18/10.
White has the stronger board and Blue must take this fact into account. A move like 23/18 6/3*, which would be the automatic choice of most players (in a chouette, for example), after closer examination is to be rejected, because of the danger of being attacked, especially with fours, an awkward number for White, if Blue keeps the anchor on White's two point. Blue's plan must be to let White play those awkward fours and other small numbers, in other words let him crash. With that in mind, I slightly prefer 18/10 over 18/15 13/8. The first, loses more equity when White hits with a six (but, when missed, is a favorite to make the 10 or 9 point) and keeps the midpoint, the latter, controls better the outfield, should White come out, but leads to a position in which Blue is a heavy underdog to make another blocking point in the outfield. I can't be sure, but I vote for the simple 18/10 with a clear plan in mind.
Laila Leonhardt: 23/18, 6/3*.
Getting stuck in White's homeboard is the immediate threat to Blue. Thoughgoing all the way out looks tempting it also removes any control that Bluehas should White start to hit and blitzOwning the 18 point will ensure even in worst case scenarios that Blue has ashot at getting back in the game.The blot on the 3 point may get hit, but if send back it will actually workin Blue's advantage giving him better flexibly and timing to control theoutfields.
Snowie: 23/18, 6/3*.
Moving a back checker is a must. I can't afford to get stuck on his twopoint facing the made eight point. It looks like I can afford to hitloose on the three point. Hopefully I can force that checker back whereit will have difficulty escaping. Also, if White rolls 1-6 or 2-6from the bar he will be forced to either break the anchor or break hiseight point. Even if White hits back, it is unlikely he will be able to mounta successful attack.
Marty Storer: 18/10.
Now this is an interesting problem. The answer has to besome play that keeps the 23 point and keeps the four-prime.I don't think 23/18 6/3* is justified tactically; thestraggler could still get into trouble, and the 23 pointis very useful. In fact, 6/3* seems fairly useless ingeneral. So the choice seems to be between 18/10 and18/15 13/8. I prefer 18/10. Giving up the midpoint leavestwo outfield blots and 9 hitting numbers; 18/10 leaves 13ways to hit, but 63 leaves another inside blot, and 54 playsbadly as well. There's some duplication: 22/16 escapes and21/15* hits. Finally, 18/10 slots a good blocking point,and the midpoint has lasting value.
Bob Stringer: 23/18, 6/3*.
Blue can't put White away because of the anchor on the 4 point, and soBlue's main goal is to extricate the back men. Of the 3 plays that hiton the 3 point, 23/18 works toward this goal and therefore looks best.I really don't want to break the midpoint while there are stragglersto worry about. All of the midpoint-breaking plays look too loose,while doing nothing to get the back men out. 8/3*, 6/3 is good ifWhite keeps dancing, but that won't happen, and then that strong 4point prime will be gone. 23/15 is awful, leaving Blue far toovulnerable. 18/10 is ok, maybe the best of the non-hitting plays,since it keeps the midpoint and White isn't even likely to use a 6 tomake a direct shot because he could have real problems if he breakshis anchor with 2 men still back. But the goal is still to get theback men outta there. 23/18, 6/3* is risky, because it leaves a blotin White's strong inner board while also placing a blot on the 3point, but once White covers his ace point escaping is going to beeven more difficult, and so I think now is the time to run. Despitethe risks, 23/18, 6/3* looks like it's the "safest" way to do it.
Casper van der Tak: 23/18, 6/3*.
White has an advanced anchor, so Blue also wants and advanced anchor. Even though Blue is behind in the race, there is no reason to sit back on the deuce point. White has three checkers back, Blue has a four-prime and outfield control, so Blue should be doing well in a frontward game plan. After 23/18, 6/3* is important to prevent a White onslaught. 6/3* also has the advantage of battling for a useful point.
Kit Woolsey: 23/18, 6/3*.
I do not want to get stuck on the 23 point, that's for sure, so comingout with 23/18 looks right. The loose hit in the inner boardprevents White from springing the back checker he wants to spring, andmay give White some awkward entering numbers. It will be difficult forWhite to generate an attack even if he hits back, so I think that risk isworthwhile.
Chris Yep: 23/18, 6/3*.
Blue is behind in the race. Each side has a similar board/prime. White has an inner board blot with only one direct cover. If Blue hits, he makes efficient use of his 6 point spare. It looks right to hit. I don't like 8/3* 6/3 since it breaks Blue's solid 4-prime. Although it reduces White's shots, Blue has a better game plan. Due to his superior timing, strong outfield coverage, and the fact that White currently only has a 3 point board with all his spares on the 6 point, Blue has the luxury of waiting to cover from the 5 point. If hit back, Blue will simply recirculate the checker. Maintaining a solid 4-prime against 3 checkers looks very strong. Given that Blue isn't going to play 8/3 with the 5, he can either play 23/18 or 18/13. I have a slight preference for 23/18. Due to Blue's superior timing his back checkers aren't in too much danger of being trapped. On the other hand, White still has a reasonable chance of winning the priming battle. Since it's relatively safe to step out now (White has all his spares on the 6 point and an inner board blot), I have a slight preference for 23/18. In my opinion the cost of White being able to attack in some scenarios (e.g. if White rolls a 3 from the bar, Blue bounces, and White rolls a good attacking number) is offset by Blue's better outfield control and improved timing (the bar point anchor is impossible to prime; Blue is one roll away from escaping all his back men).
Summary: The combination of extricating one back checker and makingthe potentially profitable loose hit on the three point won out. The otheralternatives just don't have enough punch behind them.
