162
money game
Blue
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Problem 1
| 159 162 | White money game Blue |
Alan Alsop: B/21, 16/11.
Do I want to make Whites 5 point or not, as White has achieved very little .If not what are the alternatives. Coming out to the 16 point, unnecessary at this stage. Entering and hitting on the 9 point, too many blots and no stability, and loosing the midpoint at this stage weakens Blue position. Making the 11point is a strong contender especially with one man back. The strongest way at present is to contain White in Blues home board.
Chuck Bower: B/21, 16/11.
Limiting blots and making points are mundane actions. And sometimes they'reeven right. With a close race, there is no need to overextend with the hit. Blue is not under fire so making the 20-point and leaving two vulnerable blots is overly conservative. Likewise, why leave White 14 shots at a blot on Blue's 11-point when there is a reasonable alternative? 16/11 makes a valuable point, minimizes vulnerability, and leaves the onus on White to improve his position. Seems simple, and might even be best.
Steve Clark: B/16.
I am not a blot counter (I would be but 2 or more blots always lookslike a blizzard of blots to me in any case) but hitting would createmore than enough for me. So I will have to figure out where I want tomake my stand.
On the whole I reject making the 20 point because that leaves twoappealing blots for White to hit. If I make another point, the he onlyhas one good one to aim at. Between making the 11 point and the 16 Isee little to choose, but I think having the 16 point offers somewhatbetter diversification of blocking points. It also offers fewer shots.I will play B-16.
Doug Doub: B/21, 16/11.
It is hard to imagine that hitting and leaving sixblots is the best approach. Even making the defensive 5pt and leaving 2blots looks wrong. B-21, 16-11, makes a nice point and leaves White verylittle to shoot at. If there is doubt, then cleaning up blots and making apoint has to be a reasonable choice.
Ray Fogerlund: B/20, 24/20.
I just make the 5 point. Everything else seemsloose. This looks like the second roll of the game, White can easily miss the double shot and then I will have an advantage. Getting hit will not be a problem.
Ilia Guzei: B/21, 16/11.
This play safeties two blots, covers the outfield, and puts pressure on the White straggler. Making the golden point is too passive, especially with the two blots in the outfield. The hitting play is too loose.
George Klitsas: B/21, 16/11.
By far the worst play, with six (!) blots strewn around, is B/20 13/9*. It's hard to visualize even one two-ply sequence that might gain in the long run, after this play, over the other candidates. All three of them are conceivable. B/16 leaves a direct blot (shot) in the outfield and for that reason, looks clearly inferior to B/21 16/11. I think that making White's five point, with an even game, is a strong play that prevents Blue from being doubled for some time, but Blue is going to lose race ground in all probability. Slightly better is B/21 16/11 [my choice], which makes a valuable outfield point, consolidates the position and leaves no costly, if hit, blots.
Laila Leonhardt: B/21, 16/11.
White has only few builders for his homeboard, so no danger in leave theback checkers split aiming to bring them out and around when possible. The11 point will keep pressure on White to safety his blot and create buildersfor the important 5-point.
Snowie: B/21, 16/11.
There is no reason to leave any shots in the outfield here. The raceis close, and staying ahead in that race is very important The 11 pointis a valuable point anyway, and my back checkers aren't in much danger.
Marty Storer: B/21, 16/11.
Blue consolidates his lead in development and puts the pressureon White to respond. There's no reason to make the 20 or 16 pointand leave many outside shots; Blue would rather take his chanceson 5 numbers to point on the 21 point. Breaking the midpoint tohit creates interesting blot symmetry on the 9 points, and lotsof quaint 4-linkage, but I don't find all that very aesthetic!
Bob Stringer: B/16.
Bar/20, 13/9* makes such a mess of Blue's position that it can't beright. Bar/20, 24/20 isn't unreasonable, but it leaves two blots inthe outfield and seems destined to leave Blue on the defensive.Between the remaining plays, I like making the 16 point. It seems tomake it more difficult for White's checker on the 9 point to escape,and it doesn't commit to one side of the board while the game is stillfluid.
Casper van der Tak: B/21, 16/11.
Blue is 6 pips ahead after the roll. Since the race is close, it makes sense to make sure that White can not gain a lot by sending an advanced checker back - so leave the blots you have to leave as far as possible back. Safety the most pips! This is only a relevant concept if the back checkers are not threatened, and if they are still connected to the rest of the checkers.
An additional bonus of B/21 16/11 is that it makes a useful point.
Second choice is B/16; third choice B/20 24/20, and fourth (of the choices mentioned) B/20 13/9*, which leaves many blots and return hits, and which I do not like at all.
Kit Woolsey: B/16.
Outfield control looks to me to be the most important theme here.It isn't too important if the blot on the 11 point gets hit. Holdingthe 16 point will have a great effect on the rest of the play. This willpermit me to release the checkers on the midpoint for attack purposeswhile still maintaining the necessary outfield control.
Chris Yep: B/21, 16/11.
B/20 13/9*, leaving 6 blots, is too loose, although it might be right if Blue had a significantly stronger board than White. B/20 24/20, giving White good 2s, 4s, and 7s is too passive in my opinion. I believe Blue's two best moves are b/21 16/11 and b/16. Both moves create a useful point, but since the race is currently even, minimizing shots is more important than normal. Thus, I prefer b/21 16/11, which safeties the outfield blots and ensures that any hitting battle will occur on the other side of the board.
Summary: The panel was fairly solid on locking up the 11 point and leaving nodirect shots in the outfield. Makes some sense, but I'm not totallyconviced. Outfield control and keeping all the checkers connected hasto be worth a lot in this position.
Play Votes ScoreB/21, 16/11 10 100B/16 3 70B/20, 24/20 1 60B/20, 13/9* 0 40
Problem 2
| 141 159 | White money game Blue |
Alan Alsop: 13/9(2).
How to play this one is a bit tricky. Balancing between holding White and achieving a strong position. Breaking up the prime to roll on I think will weaken the position for Blue. Moving up the back men is a possibility as White will need to unstack the 6 and 8 points to make his own prime. As yet White has not achieved too much apart from being ahead in the race White will also need to extract his back man soon. It is up too White to make good decisions shortly. Therefore I like the move of bringing two men down sealing Whites escape route and threatening to make the prime next move
Chuck Bower: 8/4, 5/3(2)*.
8/4 looks automatic -- improve the homeboard and finish a 5-prime withoutblots. After that Blue has a decision: work on the defensive side or theoffensive side. Given that the defensive gains are marginal, and in some caseseven dangerous, the offensive attack [5/3*(2)] has a lot going for it. 25% ofthe time White fans, and 6/36 enter forcing a new blot elsewhere. MoveWhite away from an easy escape route and take away half his roll, withlittle downside. Two problems down and two seemingly clear moves. I'vebeen a member of this panel too long to bask in selfish contentment....
Steve Clark: 8/4, 5/3(2)*.
5 point primes are the basis of winning backgammon. Of course 6 in arow is better but it is not so frequently achieved; 6-primes are nicebut 5-primes are the everyday winners. Here we can make a 5 prime andgive up everything else. White will be well prepared to point on us orto escape with his remaining back checker. If he escapes we would thenhave a 5 point prime which contains nothing, which, unfortunately is thebasis of losing backgammon, not winning backgammon.
How about making the 4 and 3 points on his head. Putting your opponenton the bar against a strong board is the basis of winning backgammon.5-primes might be the basis of winning backgammon on some other problem.
Doug Doub: 8/4, 5/3(2)*.
Obviously if I don't play 8-4, 13-9(2) is the move.However the 'rule' goes 'attack a blot, prime an anchor'. If we make the9pt, the White can hit with an ace, and will have good attacking chanceswith other numbers, and our three back men will be rather stranded. I'mgoing to start by covering the 4pt.
After doing so, 5-3*(2) looks like the right way to go. This preventsWhite from escaping with 6's and developing his postion with many of thisother throws. Sure, I would like to keep the 5pt, but 5 out of 6 is verystrong, as is putting White on the bar against a 3pt board.
Ray Fogerlund: 13/9(2).
Block 6s. Threaten White with a 6 prime. An ace willonly bring White to the edge of the 5 prime. Alternatively, if you make the 4 point, White is already at the edge of it! White dies without an ace, basically. So, I make a play that forces her to roll well to survive.
Ilia Guzei: 24/22(2), 8/4.
Double twos is often hard to play as there are many alternatives to consider. The 8/4 is clear. White is well poised to make another blocking point in his home board or to attack me, therefore I would love to rob him of a half roll by playing 5/3(2)* but the five prime is my only asset in this game. Hence, I am advancing my back checkers. Now it's up to White to perform.
George Klitsas: 8/4, 5/3(2)*.
It's not obvious, but Blue lacks flexibility. For that reason, 8/4 24/20 looks to me better that 8/4 24/22(2). For the same reason, 13/9(2) is weak. For that play to have a chance, White must not roll an ace (25/36) and then Blue must cover with a four (less than 15/36, depending on flexibility) a combined chance of less than 375/1298, or about 29%. By far the best play is 8/4 5/3*(2), which turns up the tables, creating some awkward entering rolls (apart from the 9 dancing ones) for White, like 1-3, 5-3 and 2-6.
Laila Leonhardt: 13/9(2).
It's not an obvious A play; there are some bad scenarios that can come fromthis with. Situations where Blue will get stuck behind a prime, run out ofplayable numbers have to break and destroy the prime he risked all this for-It was a close decision if to keep the midpoint or not here, I am still notsure that this is best move especially not with the cube on White's side.
Snowie: 8/4, 5/3(2)*.
White is threatening too much to let him play his full roll. My playputs him on the bar, stops him from escaping with a six, and leavesno direct shots. I have a strong inner board and he has one checkerback, so attacking is thematic. Other plans just don't work.
Marty Storer: 8/4, 5/3(2)*.
The structure after this play isn't so good, but it gives Whitesome bad responses. Not only does he fan with 9 rolls, but his16, 26, 53 and 31 are very bad. 51 and 21 aren't great, either.Apart from that, hitting is the best way to forestall White'sthreat to improve on his side of the board. Covering the 4and hitting loose on the 3 seems too risky, as does 7/3*(2).
Bob Stringer: 24/22(2), 8/4.
I was briefly tempted by 13/9(2), but decided it was bad because itcan easily go wrong. White has a good structure, and so it won't beeasy for Blue to escape his remaining three checkers. Even if Bluemakes the 6 prime it won't necessarily hold, and if White hits theblot, he's right up against the edge of the 5 point prime andtherefore in a position to escape while Blue has an army that'sdivided in half with *four* back men to worry about. I reject 8/4,7/3* for similar reasons - Blue doesn't appear to have enough to workwith offensively. Same for 8/4, 5/3(2)*, which gives White a hole onthe 5 to use to escape. I think Blue's priority should be to keep aneye on White's remaining back man, but to get his own back men moving.The remaining two plays do this. Since White has a threateningposition, I prefer the safer play of anchoring on White's 3 point;leaving blots on White's 4 and 5 points gives him too many good rolls.
Casper van der Tak: 8/4, 5/3(2)*.
Attack a single rear checker; don't prime a single rear checker. Attack when the last rear checker threatens to escape. Both apply here. The play has additional merit in that it gains a bit in the race; prevent White from making additional points, and gives Blue a tempo for building an advanced anchor. And finally White's entering numbers may be awkward (61 62 32 31 21 and to a lesser extent 52 51 53 all do not play too well).
13/9(2) is what I would have played in my younger years - it is pretty bad though. 8/4 24/22 (2) and 8/4 24/20 both have some merit, but the switch is much better.
Kit Woolsey: 8/4, 5/3(2)*.
There are two impotant themes here. One is to not let the opponent havean easy escape with that last back checker. The other is to attack a loneback checker rather than prime it. The shifting play follows both of thesethemes. Non-hitting plays leave White too many good things to do.
Chris Yep: 8/4, 5/3(2)*.
Blue has 3 back men to White's 1. White has 11 builders on the other side of the board in position to build. Blue has a stronger board. These three factors point toward an attacking play. I believe Blue should be hitting on the 3 point. However, hitting loose and leaving two extra blots is overkill. 8/4 7/3* keeps the 5 point, but breaks the bar point in the process. I prefer 8/4 5/3*(2), creating a broken 5-prime and leaving no blots up front.
Summary: Twenty years ago I would bet there would have beenan almost unanimous vote for 13/9(2) among experts. Primes wereeverything. The bots have shown us that this approach isn't as effectiveas we had thought, and that the lone back checker should be attacked,not primed.
Play Votes Score8/4, 5/3(2)* 9 10013/9(2) 3 7024/22(2), 8/4 2 6024/20, 8/4 0 408/4, 7/3* 0 40
Problem 3
| 146 151 | White money game Blue |
Alan Alsop: 24/18.
There are a lot of choices on this board. The main consideration to consider is that White is in strong position to make points to prime Blue here. A tempo move in hitting White will result in breaking up Blues prime, which has to be considered carefully. A lot of Whites point making moves includes the use of 6's. Also escaping from behind Blues prime requires a 6. I am not in favour of coming down to the 9 point and allowing White two objectives in hitting and escaping at the same time. Moving up to the 5 point also allows White to point on Blues head. Unfortunately Blue needs to start to move up shortly and I think now is the time. This in turn will make White concentrate his mind on this point.
Chuck Bower: 24/18.
Time to get the back checkers off the sedentary life. The homeside is solidand getting cute there doesn't seem justified. 24/18 is a big thorn in White'sside with minimal risk. White will be distracted from improving the homeboardand even from running the back checker. An exchange of hits is likely to bepositive for Blue. With the race close to even, Blue isn't concerned if Whitetakes a passive approach. 24/18 provides multiple options for improvement.
Steve Clark: 24/18.
There are a variety of interesting possibilities. I always hate to giveup a point to hit but we do have the stronger board, so 7-3 must havesome merit. 13-7 brings a builder down and prepares to blot on Whitenext roll. Making the 4 point gains another point on our inner board.This increases White's danger if we manage to hit him in the future.13-9, 24-22 has superficial attractions but I would reject it because itis unwise to slot the back of a prime while have other loose blotsaround.
Another play which I like is 24-18. This stirs things up while I havethe stronger board. Magriel called this an "action play" I think.There are two principles which combine to make this play attractive.First White can't do everything in one roll; regardless of what he rollswe are likely to have many strong return rolls available to us. Second,the blot on the 18 weakens many of White's good rolls, such as 5-1,which would play very well elsewhere if we made a different play. I amnot convinced that this is the very best play but I think it can't befar wrong. I would go for 24-18.
Doug Doub: 24/18.
This is a nice 'distraction move'. White would like toeither escape, or use his throw to unstack his 6pt while making an insidepoint. My move makes it very difficult for him to do so. Making the 4ptwould be nice, but it appears to leave White too much freedom to do whateverhe would like. We lack the material to blitz, so a positional move seemsmore appropriate here.
Ray Fogerlund: 24/18.
White is poised to make inner board points, so you don'twant to place an man there to get pointed on. But you still want to mix it up because you have a better board and you want to limit White's ability to reduce contact. Going to the bar "challenges" the blot on the 11 point and gives you a presence in all quadrants. You will be hit and perhaps pointed on, but at least White will NOT make an inner board point or escape her back man too...
Ilia Guzei: 24/18.
An example of the action play. The race is about even and there is no need to volunteer a shot. 8/4, 6/4 is pretty but it gives White 5 as an escaping number when it is not a constructive number otherwise. Even if not hit I will have to worry about the blot on the 8 point while White's position will surely be improved on the very next turn.
George Klitsas: 24/18.
In this position it is thematic to activate one or both back checkers (13/7 is not so bad but, breaking the four point blockade is unthinkable). I like most the pure "action play" 24/18. Many rolls that hit (like 6-1 for example) could be used alternatively to make crucial points.
Laila Leonhardt: 13/7.
24/22 13/9 would be my primary choice,Not having this option I looked again for another move.I decided I would play 7/3* 13/11 and again I find myself in same dilemma
Choose another one Kit says,,,,but what,,Searching for my play C I go about it the other way,,,,,I look at the list of what options I have and then I pick.The passive 13/7, I will go for attacking next roll and bringing downammunition from the midpoint.
Snowie: 24/18.
It is important to keep White occupied so he won't be able to fill in hisboard in peace. On the other hand, I don't want to leave a blot on apoint he really wants to make. 24/18 must be the right idea. This attacksthe blot on the 11 point, and threatens to make an advanced anchor. If Whitemakes the bar point on my head it is no big deal, and if he hits withoutmaking the point I will have a ton of return shots.
Marty Storer: 24/18.
This looks like the best of a bad lot. 13/9 24/22 gives a saferposition of the back men, but it allows White to hit and escapewith any 6, and it's not threatening enough to justify that risk.24/18 is a standard diversion maneuver; it ought to be betterthan any play that stops on the 20 point, because the blot isless exposed on the 18. White isn't a favorite to make the 18point on Blue's head, and even if he does, he often has to forgomaking his 5 point or escaping, while Blue has return shots andother counterplay.
Bob Stringer: 24/18.
The idea behind this move is one of the first that I ever came acrossin backgammon and remembered. It's from problem number 5 in Joe Dwek'sBackgammon for Profit (hope I'm not out of date by relying on thatone). Here, White's two best threats are to make his 5 point any of anumber of ways or to try to escape his last back checker if he rolls a6. 24/18 forces White to do something else - to hit on the 18 pointand possibly leave a shot. Since I like this play a lot, I will sparemyself the mental energy of going through all the other shots exceptto say that they look too passive (e.g., 13/7) or too risky. 24/18 hasits risks too, but other than the possibility (probability) of beinghit and losing the 6 pips gained from this roll, it keeps Blue'sstructure more intact than any other play and takes some good playsaway from White.
Casper van der Tak: 24/18.
It is thematic to attack a single back checker that threatens to escape with a direct number, especially when the opponent has a weaker board and a lot of point making numbers. Here however, the only hits available involve breaking the bar, which is a bit too much.
The other approach is to make sure that escaping to safety is difficult. 24/18 does that, ensuring a large number of hits on all White's escaping rolls except 65. An additional bonus of 24/18 is that it makes it difficult/costly for white to build inner points with his builders.
Kit Woolsey: 24/20, 13/11.
This play both splits the back checkers, which is profitable, and diversifiesup front. Going under the gun of four builders isn't as dangers as itmight seem. If White is going to make the five point, he will make itwhether I am there or not. Otherwise White may have to hit loose, and Iwill have a chance to send another checker back.
Chris Yep: 24/18.
White has 4 builders bearing on his 5 point so splitting to the 20 point is probably wrong. 24/22 7/3* doesn't gain enough when it works to offset the loss of the bar point and the addition of 2 extra blots in my opinion. I believe Blue should either work on building his prime or work on an advanced anchor (24/18, also interfering with White's building plans). Of these game plans, I think making an advanced anchor has higher priority. Blue's offense is fine right now, but his defense needs some work. In a few turns he could find himself behind a powerful prime. It looks like the right time to step out with 24/18. This is a safer split than 24/20; if White points on Blue's head, White will still only have a 1-point board. As a bonus it interferes with White's building plans by directly attacking White's 11 point blot.
Summary: The panel was nearly unanimous in voting for thedistraction play of 24/18. Upon reflection, I am convinced that thearguments for this play are correct. Getting attacked on the barpoint isn't so bad, but if White is allowed to build up his inner boardugly things could happen.
Play Votes Score24/18 12 10024/20, 13/11 1 6013/7 1 6024/22, 24/20 0 4024/22, 7/3* 0 4013/9, 6/4 0 408/4, 6/4 0 407/5, 7/3* 0 40
Problem 4
| 157 135 | White money game Blue |
Alan Alsop: 13/9.
I not sure what to promote in this position. Minimising the blots by playing wooden or making a point at the expense of some risk. Indeed risk is always present. I think the only two moves acceptable are making the 5 point or the 9 point. The 5 point is always sweet but this leaves one two many blots. If hit twice Blue would be in trouble. Therefore I will go for holding White by making the 9 point.
Chuck Bower: 17/14, 9/8.
There is a lot of temptation to make to 5-point, especially when the runningalternative (17/14, 9/8) leaves a whopping 18 return shots. OTOH, I count 23 returns after pointing on White's head on the 5-point, including 3 blots. A tough decision. Five extra shots isn't a bad trade for the 5-point, but three blots vs. one gives me pause.
"Ahead in the race, then race!" is a standard axiom. This may be an exception, but I don't think so. White has solid offense and defense, so Blue cannot hope for a quick win. But Blue has a big race lead and decent timing, and a positional struggle seems to favor White. 17/14, 9/8 won't earn Blue a Medal of Honor, but it might win the game.
Steve Clark: 8/5*, 6/5.
17-14, 9-8 is the direct route home. We are well ahead in the race andthis is the mostly likely way to stay ahead. Unfortunately we would beleft without any structure and the blot on the 14 would be subject tomany shots. This could be the right play but I will look elsewhere.
Of the other plays, each builds some useful structure but leavesvulnerable blots in return. It is always difficult in these situationsto balance the risk versus gain of each resulting position. Clearly, ifI make the 5 point, I leave the most blots around, but I do make thebest point and put White on the bar as well. I am willing to take somesubstantial risks because this play gains in two ways. I will play 8-5,6-5.
Doug Doub: 8/5*, 6/5.
Yes, I could make a safer play of 9-8, 6-3 or 17-14,9-8, but this game has a long way to go. Our 5pt is extremely valuable forcoming home against a 4pt anchor, and we can make it while putting White onthe bar and unstacking our 6pt. My play leaves a lot of shots, but I thinkthat the lasting value of having a made 5pt more than compensates.
Ray Fogerlund: 13/9.
I like this play, it is simple and solid. Making the 5point is a little optimistic, it seems to me. I would like to get missed, which can happen easily enough, and then I would like to have the maximum number of landing spaces. This play makes an additional safe spot on the 9 point. If I get hit, I will shuffle checkers around these points and behind White while I am positioning my back man for his eventual escape.
Ilia Guzei: 13/9.
I am ahead in the race so I want to race. To do so successfully I need to provide landing places for my checkers and 13/9 makes one. The 9 point is also a blocking point and this is enough to tip the scale. 9/8 6/3 makes an inner board point which is important for a hit/hit back sequence and there are as many hitting numbers for White (24). 17/14, 9/8 leaves the fewest (17) hitting numbers but is inflexible. I believe the three plays are very close and don't know which factor is predominant.
George Klitsas: 8/5*, 6/5.
It's hard to visualize how Blue led himself to this mess, but, at least, he managed to have a healthy lead in the race. I am quite sure that the best play is by far the wide-open 8/5* 6/5, risking numerous double (return) hits, but making the most needed point on the board. By potentially giving back voluntarily some pips to White (in analogy with the chess master who returns to his opponent some of the sacrificed material, in order to consolidate his position), Blue can obtain a strong and quite playable position in most variations. All other moves are much weaker and will lead to consolidation problems later, even if they survive the immediate hits.
Laila Leonhardt: 17/14, 9/8.
The cube has been turned, Blue is well ahead in the race and White has asmall prime with good potentials.Blue does not wish to end up behind White's prime again having nothinghimself to counter prime with and therefore should try to make the safestrun for home.
Snowie: 9/8, 6/3.
Making the five point and leaving three blots is way too loose. I needsome structure in this position. That blot on the three point is aneyesore -- it needs to be covered. Once that blot is covered I canslug it out with White if necessary, but with that blot sitting thereI am at the mercy of the dice. It is worth a couple of extra shotsto get that blot covered.
Marty Storer: 9/8, 6/3.
White's midpoint is stripped, so many of his hitting numbersforce him to break that point. Therefore Blue doesn't necessarilymind leaving the blot on the 17 point. He can try the simple17/14 9/8, which minimizes shots and gets closer to home, buthalf of White's numbers hit, and Blue's inner-board blot makesit hard to come back at White after being hit. I think the bloton the 3 point is the key; if Blue is hit, he'd much rather havea second inside point than a blot in his board. Making the 9point is strong, but the value of the 3 point seems moreimportant over the next several rolls. Making the 5 pointleaves too many blots and shots for me; it seems unnecessary,particularly in the face of White's advanced anchor.
Bob Stringer: 13/9.
The eye naturally goes to making the 5 point, but it has to berejected because it leaves three blots and 21 shots. 9/8, 6/3 givesBlue a crummy structure - and it succeeds in doing so when Blue stillhas to worry about the blot on the 17 point. 17/14, 9/8 also gets youthe ugly structure, but is the better racing play; if White misses theblot on the 14, Blue has a somewhat decent chance of bringing all hismen around the board. But I prefer 13/9, since it puts real pressureon White's 3 back men. The blot on the 17 certainly is exposed -- adefinite downside to my play -- but at least if White hits it from themidpoint, he pays the price of dividing his army in half when he hastoo many men back. This was not a good roll, and White has the betterposition, so I prefer attempting to improve Blue's game to trying totippy-toe home.
Casper van der Tak: 17/14, 9/8.
Blue is a lot ahead in the race, and the challenge is to bring the position home. Building the 5-point can be discarded, since it leaves too many returns that harm Blue's game plan (running). The other three plays all have merit: 13/9 unstacks the midpoint and makes a useful landing point while safetying a blot; 9/8 6/3 makes an inner point, useful for any exchange of hits, and safeties a blot; and 17/14 9/8 safeties a blot and brings the rear checker closer to home.
How to choose between the three reasonable plays? First, let's count hits:
* 17/14 9/8: 18 hits
* 9/8 6/3: 24 hits
* 13/9: 24 hits
Advantage to 17/14 9/8; 9/8 6/3 and 13/9 ex aequo.
Severity of the hits:
The hits are worst after 17/14 9/8, since Blue loses the most pips and has the weakest forward position. Best 9/8 6/3, in the middle 13/9.
Position after non-hits
* Best after 17/14 9/8 (closest to home)
* Second best after 13/9 (additional landing point)
* Third best after 9/8 6/3
Considering all these factors, 17/14 9/8 seems best followed by 9/8 6/3 (the advantage that 9/8 6/3 has over 13/9 in the case of hits occurs twice as often as the disadvantage after the non-hit), then 13/9 and 8/5* 6/5 comes in last.
Kit Woolsey: 17/14, 9/8.
Our racing lead, White's anchor, and White's strong offense argue for playingas safely as possible and trying to run on home. This play leaves onlyone direct shot, and that is from a stripped midpoint. Other plays arestructurally a little better, but immediate safety appears to be moreimportant.
Chris Yep: 17/14, 9/8.
Ahead in the race by 26 pips with only 1 back man against White's 21 point holding game, I believe Blue should just try to come home safely. Note that if Blue plays 17/14, White will often have to break his midpoint to hit next turn. Blue will eventually want the 5 point, so 8/5* 6/5 is a nice structural improvement. However it leaves 3 blots and a lot of shots, so it doesn't seem worth it. I like 17/14 9/8, playing with only one outfield blot, while still keeping a decent offensive structure.
Summary: A nice problem, with all the candidates getting somesupport from the panel. The safest play won out, but it is far fromclear what is really correct.
Play Votes Score17/14, 9/8 5 10013/9 4 908/5*, 6/5 3 809/8, 6/3 2 70
Problem 5
| 152 143 | White money game Blue |
Alan Alsop: 13/8, 9/6.
On one hand moving from the bar point is asking for trouble. On the other hand Blue does not have sufficient builders bearing down into his home board. This would leave only 13/5* or the play of 13/8, 9/6 to go. The 13/5* would give White nearly half his throws hitting and consequently leaving Blue stripped. I think the safety play is called for hear.
Chuck Bower: 18/15*, 6/1*.
Blue can play safe and try to cater to a moderate race lead, but White ispositionally sound and Blue has shaky structure. Of the hitting plays, hittingtwo leaves the fewest shots and puts White on his heels, needing a decentroll. Putting two in the air is tactically strong. The purer single hit alternatives don't appear to offer enough compensation.
Steve Clark: 13/8, 9/6.
Is this a good getaway roll? It might be but I am not sure. I give up avery secure position and leave a lot of blots when playing 18-13,18-15. If I avoid this play, maybe I will roll double 5's very soon.
There are two other attractive plays. The first is 13-5. This is thenormal response with a 5,3 roll when our opponent has come out to the 5point, but here it is slightly less attractive than usual because we arealready ahead in the race. Furthermore the alternative of 9-6, 13-8 hasconsiderable merit. This play attempts to take advantage of our racinglead by avoiding any unnecessary exposure. All of this leaves meuncertain as to the best play but I will go for safety this time, 13-8,9-6.
Doug Doub: 13/5*.
It could be better to make a safer play of 13-8, 9-6 orbreak off of our rear anchor, but I prefer to fight for the best point onour board. We get hit back on twenty of White's rolls, but the gain when weare missed is quite substantial. Filling that gap on our 5pt would do aGREAT deal for our position, so the gains when we are missed appear to morethan compensate for what we lose when we are hit.
Ray Fogerlund: 13/8, 9/6.
If one decides to hit, then you should go for it and hit twomen... But, since I am ahead in the race and have a comfortable anchor on White's bar point, I think that something a little less volatile is in order here. Play safe with 13/8, 9/6. Note that White's position is stripped in the outfield, and so she is straining to hold it together. What she would like is to change the game into a tactical contest where the tables can turn quickly. Blue has a solid advantage and a reasonable play. Why not wait for a winning double, or a number that crushes White if she tries to defend with blots.
Ilia Guzei: 13/8, 9/6.
This is likely to become a mutual holding game and I have a slight edge. 13/8, 9/6 leaves no blots and puts spares on the points I have. Hitting on the 15 point is antithematic: White has more men back and I am ahead in the race. 13/5 is pretty when it works but this play leaves 17 hitting numbers with two double-hitters and inducing a slugfest is not to my advantage.
George Klitsas: 13/5*.
I don't even want to think about a play like 18/15* 6/1* with four blots strewn around. The three other plays are conceivable. I think that the quiet 13/8 9/6 is wrong, not only because Blue's position is cramped with awkward three's to play, not only because very often he will lose the timing battle and leave a shot on White's bar point, but for another reason as well, having to do with the cube. In the variations when the game will become a race, White will retain full recube vig. Between the two candidates that are left to choose from, I vote for 13/5* over 18/15* 18/13, simply counting the number of shots and double shots left to White after each play. It's true that when 18/15* 18/13 succeeds, Blue solves at the same time the problem of disengaging from White's bar point, but it's also true that when 13/5* succeeds, Blue usually makes his five point, which is a big improvement as well.
Laila Leonhardt: 13/5*.
Blue has a nice solid anchor on the 18th point. With that he can afford toplay aggressively to try to prime White.If Blue plays safely he might soon find himself running out of time and willhave to abandon and outside point without leaving shots, or if he triessplitting the 18 point now and make a run for it while White is on the bar,he could easily find himself getting gammoned.
Snowie: 13/8, 9/6.
I'm ahead in the race, aren't I? My play puts checkers in fine places andleaves no shots. No need to do anything drastic right now. I have plentyof time to improve my position.
Marty Storer: 13/5*.
This seems to be a choice between the modest single-hit andthe weenie play 13/8 9/6. I think Blue can afford to hit;he has an advanced anchor and gains a lot when White misses.Leaving White alone gives him a chance to improve, and Bluehas a nondescript position.
Bob Stringer: 13/5*.
18/15*, 6/1*, leaving blots everywhere, looks awful. 13/8, 9/6 is notunreasonable, but I have a very hard time figuring out when to becompletely passive by stacking 'em up. I do that only if there's noclear alternative, and here there are two reasonable ones. 13/5*leaves 18 shots, whereas 18/15*, 18/13 leaves 22. 13/5*, if itsucceeds, builds Blue's board. Also, I'm not sure of the wisdom ofvacating White's bar point when there's a good chance of being hit.13/5* is far from a clear choice -- hitting in the outfield is usuallyto be preferred to hitting loose in the inner board -- but theforegoing factors tip the balance for me in this case.
Casper van der Tak: 13/8, 9/6.
Blue is ahead in the race, and by quite a bit - 17 pips after the rolls. No need to hit and complicate matters by leaving a large number of return hits, especially since White has the better quality board. 13/8 9/6 is not the most beautiful play one can think of, but improves the position of the spares, and safeties those pips, which seems an important concept in this problem set. Blue can wait for better rolls, especially doubles, to bring the position home. Meanwhile, White needs to figure out whether to link the rear checkers or not
Kit Woolsey: 13/8, 9/6.
I have the racing lead, so there isn't any urgency to mix things up withone of the hitting plays. All of these plays leave too many return shotsand blots. I don't care that much if White anchors on my five point -- Iwill have the advantage in the mutual holding game simply because I amahead in the race.
Chris Yep: 13/5*.
18/15* 18/13 is a serious candidate since it gains 15 pips in the race and starts to disengage contact at a time when Blue is ahead in the race. However, Blue still has a lot of work to do if missed and with his 2 blots there's a high chance that he'll get hit back in the next few turns (most 1s, 3s, and 4s allow White to hit from the bar on the first turn). Instead, I think Blue does better to keep his anchor and forego the 15 pips. I prefer 13/5*, fighting for a key point. Blue has an equal board and an advanced anchor, while White has an outfield blot. If Blue is missed he has 1s, 3s, 4s, and 8s to cover next turn. If Blue can make the 5 point he will have substantially improved his position. Overall I believe that hitting on the 5 point is worth the risk.
Summary: The panel was divided between playing safe and trying tolimp home, or hitting loose on the five point which is great if it works butpotentially disastrous if it doesn't. There may be a big equity differencebetween these two vastly different approaches, but which one is thebetter play?
Play Votes Score13/8, 9/6 7 10013/5* 6 9018/15*, 6/1* 1 6018/15*, 18/13 0 40
Problem 6
| 158 172 | White money game Blue |
Alan Alsop: 13/7*.
Blue is well behind in the race and with one home board point behind. Hitting on the bar point could leave Blue further behind in the race after the exchanges. As Blue has Whites 5 point he can afford to be more ambitious if needed. Taking this into account I believe hitting on the bar point is more desirable than the others, especially as White has three blots floating about and is a trifle stretched.
Chuck Bower: 8/4, 6/4.
By not hitting, Blue is all but conceding his barpoint to White. On the otherhand, hitting there doesn't prevent White from making it. 20 numbers returnhit, 2-2 points-on-head, and 2-1, 2-3, and 2-4 hit loose on the 21-point.Deciding not to hit leaves three decent building plays. The 11-point looks more valuable here than the 9-point and the back checker is safer on the 17-point than on the 4-point, especially considering White's desire to unstackhis 6-point by hitting. That leaves 4(2) as the last option. It's hard to argue with making a new and valuable homeboard point. However, it does give White just about every number to do something good: 6's and 5's make the 18-point; 4's, 2's, 3-1 and 3-3 all hit. White's worst roll, 1-1, still makes an anchor. Toughest decision of this month's set for me. This game looks like it is going to last awhile which tips the scales in favor or grabbing the best available asset, the 4-point.
Steve Clark: 8/4, 6/4.
I think there is no point to playing 13-7. All this does is get us intoa blot hitting contest against an opponent with a better board. Beforewe do any hitting, we need some structure so that the hits create someproblems for White. This means that we should play either 8-4, 6-4 or13-9, 11-9. Note that building the 11 point with 13-11 could also bestrong but only if we had a useful place to play the 4.
I rate the two building plays just about even. If I make the 9 point, Ibuild 3 out of 4 points and do not leave a blot. If I make the 4 point,I gain an inner board point but the leave a loose checker which Whitewill be happy to hit. I guess I will make the 4 point because, even ifI am hit on the 11, White will still have 2 checkers back. If White wasmore of a threat to escape all of his checkers by hitting, I might bemore inclined to play more safely by making the 9 point.
Doug Doub: 13/9, 11/9.
I would slug away and hit with 13-7, if we did nothave a constructive alternative, but we get hit in return so often, that itmakes sense to give more weight to our other options. If we do not hit,then White will probably make the bar point anchor. In that case, althoughinner board points are more valuable than outer board points, keeping men infront of the anchor and leaving fewer blots should take priorty. Making the9pt does well in that regard.
Ray Fogerlund: 13/7*.
When in doubt, HIT.
Ilia Guzei: 13/9, 11/9.
With the golden point made Blue needs more assets on the other side of the board. 13/9, 11/9 provides another outside point which is a landing place or another point in a growing prime, or a supply of builders for my home board if White is forced to run from my bar point. 8/4, 6/4 is also good but stripping the 8 point and leaving a direct shot does not look appealing. This will be another holding game and I will have a chance to build my board later on.
George Klitsas: 13/9, 11/9.
The race is close and Blue must plan a kind of a priming game rather than a blood bath or a back game. For that reason I exclude 13/7* - White has numerous return shots on Blue's bar point and with some "small" rolls, like 2-1 for example, he can distract Blue by entering and hitting with 6/4*, recirculating the checker in the worst case. Both 21/17 13/11 and 8/4 6/4 leave a shot, a costly one in race terms, if hit. All said, I will go for the solid 13/9 11/9, which prepares for a priming game, retaining at the same time decent chances should the game become eventually a race.
Laila Leonhardt: 8/4, 6/4.
Blue is solidly planted with a nice 5 point anchor in White's home board,ensure a holding game with not much fear of getting an additional checkersend back.Blue needs to build a homeboard soon though, and now is a great opportunityto make an important point.
Snowie: 13/9, 11/9.
Yes the four point is better than the nine point, but the cost of leavingthe direct shot in the outfield is too great. The nine point hasmore value for the future than the 11 point, since the resulting positionis more compact. As for hitting -- now way. Too many shots and blots.
Marty Storer: 13/9, 11/9.
21/17 13/11 is somewhat appealing, to get the stragglerout of range of White's stack of builders on his 6 point.But either the 4 or the 9 point looks stronger; thosepoints put more pressure on White in the long run thanthe 11 point, and Blue's backmost blot isn't in muchdanger. White has a better inner board, so I prefer the9 point slightly, though I could be talked into improvingthe inner board.
Bob Stringer: 21/17, 13/11.
None of these plays looks unreasonable to me. I reject 13/7* becauseit leaves a lot of return shots, and other plays give me the chance togain a permanent asset. 8/4 6/4 makes the best point, but at the pricethat almost any 4, 5 or 6 is good for White. I go with making the 11instead of the 9 point since it starts Blue's extra back man on hisway in addition to making a point.
Casper van der Tak: 13/9, 11/9.
This safeties the most pips, important since the race is still close (Blue is behind 8 pips after the roll). 21/17 13/11 is a close second, but risks losing more pips, and I also prefer the 9-point to the 11-point in this position.
Building the 4-point and hitting loose leave White too many good numbers. Building the 4 leaves 5s and 6s to make the bar, and 4s 9s and 10s to hit on the 11. 21 is white's worst number than, and can still be used to hit (6/4*/3 - it is not a beauty contest). Hitting loose is better than making the 4, I think, but still leaves many returns (I did not want to count them).
Kit Woolsey: 13/9, 11/9.
Hitting is way too loose. The four point would be nice, but White wouldhave all good numbers -- fours to hit and fives and sixes to make theanchor on my bar point. Once White has this anchor, the value of thefour point goes down. Making the nine point gives me good structure forthe likely upcoming mutual holding game battle.
Chris Yep: 13/9, 11/9.
All four candidate moves look reasonable. However, I like 13/9 11/9 for several reasons:
(1) White has a better board.
(2) White is likely to make the 18 point (or hit back there if Blue plays 13/7*). As a result making the 4 point or hitting loose is only of medium importance.
(3) Blue is short on checkers up front (only 8 checkers), so can't afford to have another sent back. In addition if Blue plays 8/4 6/4, White has several strong double-hits (5-4, 4-4, 2-2).
(4) 13/9 11/9 leaves no blots, while still securing an important offensive point (the 9 point is better than the 11 point here).
All things considered, I believe 13/9 11/9 is best.
Summary: Making the solid nine point and working from there wasthe clear choice of the panel. It does seem to be a reasonable approachfor this position.
Play Votes Score13/9, 11/9 8 1008/4, 6/4 3 8013/7* 2 7021/17, 13/11 1 60
Problem 7
| 158 154 | White money game Blue |
Alan Alsop: B/21, 15/11, 13/9(2).
Although double 4's look good, in reality it has its limitations here. Pointing or hitting on the 4 point strips the 8 point, which is not acceptable with White stationed on Blues bar point. Bringing a man around to the 1 point is a total waste of a move. This leaves the main moves around Blues 9 point. Bringing down three men down or two. As Blue is ahead in the race and I think it would be better on the 11 point. White would have to think twice before breaking from the bar point.
Chuck Bower: B/21, 15/11, 8/4(2)*.
White is in disarray and Blue should take advantage of that. Pointing-on-head is big. White has a vulnerable blot remaining in his homeboard, a stripped 8-point, and stacks on the 6 and 13-points. 15/11 moves a blot from a point White would like to hit loose on to a point where hitting means giving up the only asset added to White's opening setup. White has given Blue the green light. Jam the accelerator to the floor.
Steve Clark: B/21, 15/11, 8/4(2)*.
If White had more structure, I probably would play b-21, 8-4(3). Buthere I am in little danger from being hit, so I can take a little morerisk. As in problem 6, it seems as though I can make the 4 point or the9 point. Again it could be right to make either point but again I willgo for the 4 point, in particular because I get to put a checker on thebar as well as make an inner board point.
After making the 4 point, I guess I will play 15-11. This duplicates4's for White (for whatever that is worth), and the alternatives areunappealing. In particular I do not really care for moving 3 men to the4 point. This does bring another builder for the blot on the ace pointbut I do not want to push too many checkers past Whites men on my barpoint. Rather I want to build my 8 point next roll rather that moveinward at this time. I will play b-21, 8-4(2), 15-11.
Doug Doub: B/21, 15/11, 13/9(2).
I'm not willing to break our good 8pt for asomewhat better 4pt, just to hit, when the cost is a direct shot at our 1ptand a highly ragged position. My play unstacks our midpoint while making auseful 9pt, and brings a blot around to where White will not be especiallyanxious to hit it.
Ray Fogerlund: B/21, 15/11, 8/4(2)*.
I am not sure about this, but it doesquite a few things. It points on White, robbing half of her roll. It brings the builder "around the corner", where it can be most effective. Also, though there are a few blots with this play 1s and 4s are duplicated, and White has a lot of work to do to clean up her position at the same time. Tidying it up will be much more difficult if part of her turn is used to enter. Mostly, I just think that I want to play some backgammon here. Minimizing shots when contact is unavoidable anyway is not all that effective. If I point on White here, I know that 11% of the time she will not move at all. Also, two-six from the bar sucks! In fact, sixes in general will be awkward to play, so it is important to attack in order to create bad luck for White!
Ilia Guzei: B/21, 15/11, 13/9(2).
Blue enters with one 4, makes his 9 point with the other two and looks for the fourth 4. The choice is close between 13/9 and 15/11. 13/9 strips the midpoint, brings down an unimportant builder, but duplicates White's 3's. 15/11 brings down a builder for the 5 point and exposes a blot that will likely cost White an anchor should he decide to hit. The checker distribution is slightly better after 15/11 so that's my play.
George Klitsas: B/21, 15/11, 13/9(2).
B/21 15/11 13/9(2). Duplicating 4's and keeping the eight point with the spare on it. Blue needs some structure to bring this position home.
Laila Leonhardt: B/21, 13/9, 8/4(2)*.
No home board for White,,,,thats a battle signal to take charge and lead theattack.Even if White should hit from the bar, Blue is well in the game and with the4 point he owns that little but mostly very important difference, he has onepoint more in his home board.
Snowie: B/21, 15/11, 13/9(2).
Making the four point leaves my position a disjointed mess. My playunstacks the heavy midpoint, makes the valuable nine point in front ofhis anchor, and puts checkers in decent places. I am trying to bringall 15 checkers around at one time, not divide my army into fragmentedpieces.
Marty Storer: B/21, 15/11, 13/9(2).
When ahead in the race, race. This position seems to boildown to that. Making the 4 point isn't very dangerous, butmaking the 9 point isn't, either, and the 9 point is a lotmore valuable in this position. If White hits, he probablyhas to break anchor, and the hitting 4's are duplicated toattack in the inner board.
Bob Stringer: B/21, 15/11, 13/9(2).
My chosen play makes a good point and puts the blot in a positionwhere White's only direct shot breaks his anchor on the bar pointunless he rolls 4-3. The plays that make the 4 point pay too big aprice by either vacating the 8 point or leaving a blot there. 13/9(3)strips the midpoint too early in the game. 13/1 is ok, I suppose,since the blot on the ace point has to be covered sometime, but thatseems like a waste of three dice when there's a better point to bemade.
Casper van der Tak: B/21, 15/11, 13/9(2).
B/21 8/4*(2) and another 4 is a weak switch for the sake of gaining a tempo which Blue does not really need. B/21 13/1 also looks ugly, although it has the merit of covering the blot on the ace.
B/21 13/9 (3) is reasonable, making another useful point, but strips the midpoint. Compared to B/21 13/9(2), B/21 15/11 13/9(2) has a number of advantages: it does not strip the midpoint, and it leaves the blot where White would need to break the bar to hit (or hit a combination shot). B/21 13/9(3) has the advantage of keeping the two back checkers better connected, but I think the advantages of B/21 15/11 13/9(2) relative to B/21 13/9(3) outweigh the disadvantages.
Kit Woolsey: B/21, 15/11, 8/4(2)*.
It is hard to resist the combination of making a good inner board pointand putting the opponent on the bar. The resulting position isscattered, but I think I can afford that because White also has amess. I will have the advantage in a blot-hitting contest due to mystronger inner board, so one of the safer plays is not necessary.
Chris Yep: B/21, 13/9(3).
All candidate moves are good (although 15/11 8/4*(2) and 13/9 8/4*(2) seem a little loose). I like b/21 13/9(3) for its balance on both sides of the board. On the offensive side of the board, it makes the 9 point and gives Blue the best possible building potential. On the defensive side of the board it keeps the back checkers connected and retains Blue's outfield coverage.
Summary: Positional before tactical says the majority of the panel.Makes sense, since making the four point leaves Blue a disjointed positionand Blue will have only a two-point board anyway. Still, the opportunityto point on an opponent on the offensive four point is hard to pass up.
Play Votes ScoreB/21, 15/11, 13/9(2) 8 100B/21, 15/11, 8/4(2)* 4 80B/21, 13/9, 8/4(2)* 1 60B/21, 13/9(3) 1 60B/21, 13/1 0 40B/21, 8/4(3)* 0 40
Problem 8
| 129 153 | White money game Blue |
Alan Alsop: 18/10.
The prime must stay as this is doing a good holding job on White. White needs 5's and 6's to break from this blockade. Blue on this move must hold the 2 point or White will attack. Blue is behind in the race but still in a strong position especially if White throws small numbers and breaks from the 8 point. Unfortunately the throw leaves few options for Blue. Keeping the mid point is necessary for the future. So it leaves the direct shot on the 10 point opening up the game if hit or blocking White in hopefully.
Chuck Bower: 18/15, 13/8.
I see no reason to give up the anchor here (which, given my recent perfromance, probably means this is the best ploy!). Blue is way behind in the race and White's spares are awkwardly stacked. 23/18 let's White off the hook too often. For the alternatives, let's take a look at how White's singles play. If left alone on the the 22-point, 6's pop out. If pointed upon, 1-6 is awkward but other entering 6's are OK. 5's always play 6/1. 4's and 3's are usually bad if White is left alone, but not so otherwise. 4-4 is particularly ugly if Blue just keeps the 8-point. 2's and 1's play comfortably from the stacked 6-point, regardless.
Giving up the 8-point doesn't look right here, based upon the above singlesaccounting. 18/13, 6/3* makes 1-6 and 2-6 awkward, but leaves most otherentering numbers playable. 18/15, 13/8 results in White blots with several3's and 4's, and adds a useful spare to the 8-point. White's blot on theacepoint makes this move reasonably safe. Keep the 8-point, don't giveWhite any jokers, and give White the chance to toss an awkward number. 18/15, 13/8 does all of that so it gets my vote.
Steve Clark: 23/18, 6/3*.
What is it about this problem that makes me want to play 23-18, 6-3?One of the basic principle when playing against a high anchor is that itis bad to hit behind the anchor, particularly when our opponent has thestronger board. I can't fully explain this although I can see part ofthe reason. I certainly want to play 23-18 whenever I get the chance.The easiest way to lose this position is for my back men to remaintrapped on the 23 point. But if I play the 5 this way, where does the3 go? 5-2 is safe but ugly beyond words. And there is no other 3available except 6-3. Besides if I do play 6-3, this will make it moredifficult for White to untangle his checkers on his 6 point. The hittends to protect my remaining blot on the 23 point.
Well what about a different play altogether? 18-10 seems to have somelogic, but it does leave direct shots and does leave those men back onthe 23 point. Maybe the checker on the 10 will not be hit and I canbuild the 10 point next roll. This all seems a little unlikely to me.
Another possibility is to make the 3 point. We get a checker on the barbut I really would rather keep my points in front of White's anchorrather than building behind it.
This play may look a little strange but I still like 23-18, 6-3.
Doug Doub: 23/18, 6/3*.
Outfield control is the name of the game here. Iwould like to run all the way, but that makes it too easy for White toattack us inside. He does have a stronger board and twelve men in theattack zone. Hitting him on the 3pt stops him from effectively attacking usinside, starts a good point, and prevents his escape, while enabling us tomaintain our presence in the outfield as much as possible.
If I play 18-13, 6-3*, I'm concerned about getting stuck on the deucepoint. This roll enables me to free one of those men while making apotentially useful point, and it would be a shame to pass that up.
Ray Fogerlund: 8/3*, 6/3.
I don't know what is better, so why over think it?Just make the point and see what happens. Blue controls the outfield completely. If making the 3 point was not available I might try stepping out to the bar and hitting loose on the 3 point, and old style "pure" play. Bots hate blots, and I have learned to, also... Good luck!
Ilia Guzei: 18/10.
This is a priming battle and the timing is likely to go Blue's way. This play keeps all my assets intact and threatens to make another blocking point while somewhat duplicating White's sixes which he needs to hit or to escape the back checker. However, I do not believe this duplication is significant. 8/3, 6/3 is a play for a different game plan and after either play White has many uncomfortable numbers. Kit often says one never knows what good things may happen while the opponent is on the bar but what will I follow up the attacking play with? My 5's will be duplicated and White will be given a chance to maintain his blockade.
George Klitsas: 18/10.
White has the stronger board and Blue must take this fact into account. A move like 23/18 6/3*, which would be the automatic choice of most players (in a chouette, for example), after closer examination is to be rejected, because of the danger of being attacked, especially with fours, an awkward number for White, if Blue keeps the anchor on White's two point. Blue's plan must be to let White play those awkward fours and other small numbers, in other words let him crash. With that in mind, I slightly prefer 18/10 over 18/15 13/8. The first, loses more equity when White hits with a six (but, when missed, is a favorite to make the 10 or 9 point) and keeps the midpoint, the latter, controls better the outfield, should White come out, but leads to a position in which Blue is a heavy underdog to make another blocking point in the outfield. I can't be sure, but I vote for the simple 18/10 with a clear plan in mind.
Laila Leonhardt: 23/18, 6/3*.
Getting stuck in White's homeboard is the immediate threat to Blue. Thoughgoing all the way out looks tempting it also removes any control that Bluehas should White start to hit and blitzOwning the 18 point will ensure even in worst case scenarios that Blue has ashot at getting back in the game.The blot on the 3 point may get hit, but if send back it will actually workin Blue's advantage giving him better flexibly and timing to control theoutfields.
Snowie: 23/18, 6/3*.
Moving a back checker is a must. I can't afford to get stuck on his twopoint facing the made eight point. It looks like I can afford to hitloose on the three point. Hopefully I can force that checker back whereit will have difficulty escaping. Also, if White rolls 1-6 or 2-6from the bar he will be forced to either break the anchor or break hiseight point. Even if White hits back, it is unlikely he will be able to mounta successful attack.
Marty Storer: 18/10.
Now this is an interesting problem. The answer has to besome play that keeps the 23 point and keeps the four-prime.I don't think 23/18 6/3* is justified tactically; thestraggler could still get into trouble, and the 23 pointis very useful. In fact, 6/3* seems fairly useless ingeneral. So the choice seems to be between 18/10 and18/15 13/8. I prefer 18/10. Giving up the midpoint leavestwo outfield blots and 9 hitting numbers; 18/10 leaves 13ways to hit, but 63 leaves another inside blot, and 54 playsbadly as well. There's some duplication: 22/16 escapes and21/15* hits. Finally, 18/10 slots a good blocking point,and the midpoint has lasting value.
Bob Stringer: 23/18, 6/3*.
Blue can't put White away because of the anchor on the 4 point, and soBlue's main goal is to extricate the back men. Of the 3 plays that hiton the 3 point, 23/18 works toward this goal and therefore looks best.I really don't want to break the midpoint while there are stragglersto worry about. All of the midpoint-breaking plays look too loose,while doing nothing to get the back men out. 8/3*, 6/3 is good ifWhite keeps dancing, but that won't happen, and then that strong 4point prime will be gone. 23/15 is awful, leaving Blue far toovulnerable. 18/10 is ok, maybe the best of the non-hitting plays,since it keeps the midpoint and White isn't even likely to use a 6 tomake a direct shot because he could have real problems if he breakshis anchor with 2 men still back. But the goal is still to get theback men outta there. 23/18, 6/3* is risky, because it leaves a blotin White's strong inner board while also placing a blot on the 3point, but once White covers his ace point escaping is going to beeven more difficult, and so I think now is the time to run. Despitethe risks, 23/18, 6/3* looks like it's the "safest" way to do it.
Casper van der Tak: 23/18, 6/3*.
White has an advanced anchor, so Blue also wants and advanced anchor. Even though Blue is behind in the race, there is no reason to sit back on the deuce point. White has three checkers back, Blue has a four-prime and outfield control, so Blue should be doing well in a frontward game plan. After 23/18, 6/3* is important to prevent a White onslaught. 6/3* also has the advantage of battling for a useful point.
Kit Woolsey: 23/18, 6/3*.
I do not want to get stuck on the 23 point, that's for sure, so comingout with 23/18 looks right. The loose hit in the inner boardprevents White from springing the back checker he wants to spring, andmay give White some awkward entering numbers. It will be difficult forWhite to generate an attack even if he hits back, so I think that risk isworthwhile.
Chris Yep: 23/18, 6/3*.
Blue is behind in the race. Each side has a similar board/prime. White has an inner board blot with only one direct cover. If Blue hits, he makes efficient use of his 6 point spare. It looks right to hit. I don't like 8/3* 6/3 since it breaks Blue's solid 4-prime. Although it reduces White's shots, Blue has a better game plan. Due to his superior timing, strong outfield coverage, and the fact that White currently only has a 3 point board with all his spares on the 6 point, Blue has the luxury of waiting to cover from the 5 point. If hit back, Blue will simply recirculate the checker. Maintaining a solid 4-prime against 3 checkers looks very strong. Given that Blue isn't going to play 8/3 with the 5, he can either play 23/18 or 18/13. I have a slight preference for 23/18. Due to Blue's superior timing his back checkers aren't in too much danger of being trapped. On the other hand, White still has a reasonable chance of winning the priming battle. Since it's relatively safe to step out now (White has all his spares on the 6 point and an inner board blot), I have a slight preference for 23/18. In my opinion the cost of White being able to attack in some scenarios (e.g. if White rolls a 3 from the bar, Blue bounces, and White rolls a good attacking number) is offset by Blue's better outfield control and improved timing (the bar point anchor is impossible to prime; Blue is one roll away from escaping all his back men).
Summary: The combination of extricating one back checker and makingthe potentially profitable loose hit on the three point won out. The otheralternatives just don't have enough punch behind them.
Play Votes Score23/18, 6/3* 8 10018/10 4 8018/15, 13/8 1 608/3*, 6/3 1 6023/15 0 4018/13, 6/3* 0 4013/10, 13/8 0 4013/8, 6/3* 0 40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Alan Alsop B/21, 16/11 13/9(2) 24/18 13/9 13/8, 9/6 13/7* B/21, 15/11, 13/9(2) 18/10Chuck Bower B/21, 16/11 8/4, 5/3(2)* 24/18 17/14, 9/8 18/15*, 6/1* 8/4, 6/4 B/21, 15/11, 8/4(2)* 18/15, 13/8Steve Clark B/16 8/4, 5/3(2)* 24/18 8/5*, 6/5 13/8, 9/6 8/4, 6/4 B/21, 15/11, 8/4(2)* 23/18, 6/3*Doug Doub B/21, 16/11 8/4, 5/3(2)* 24/18 8/5*, 6/5 13/5* 13/9, 11/9 B/21, 15/11, 13/9(2) 23/18, 6/3*Ray Fogerlund B/20, 24/20 13/9(2) 24/18 13/9 13/8, 9/6 13/7* B/21, 15/11, 8/4(2)* 8/3*, 6/3Ilia Guzei B/21, 16/11 24/22(2), 8/4 24/18 13/9 13/8, 9/6 13/9, 11/9 B/21, 15/11, 13/9(2) 18/10George Klitsas B/21, 16/11 8/4, 5/3(2)* 24/18 8/5*, 6/5 13/5* 13/9, 11/9 B/21, 15/11, 13/9(2) 18/10Laila Leonhardt B/21, 16/11 13/9(2) 13/7 17/14, 9/8 13/5* 8/4, 6/4 B/21, 13/9, 8/4(2)* 23/18, 6/3*Snowie B/21, 16/11 8/4, 5/3(2)* 24/18 9/8, 6/3 13/8, 9/6 13/9, 11/9 B/21, 15/11, 13/9(2) 23/18, 6/3*Marty Storer B/21, 16/11 8/4, 5/3(2)* 24/18 9/8, 6/3 13/5* 13/9, 11/9 B/21, 15/11, 13/9(2) 18/10Bob Stringer B/16 24/22(2), 8/4 24/18 13/9 13/5* 21/17, 13/11 B/21, 15/11, 13/9(2) 23/18, 6/3*Capser van der Tak B/21, 16/11 8/4, 5/3(2)* 24/18 17/14, 9/8 13/8, 9/6 13/9, 11/9 B/21, 15/11, 13/9(2) 23/18, 6/3*Kit Woolsey B/16 8/4, 5/3(2)* 24/20, 13/11 17/14, 9/8 13/8, 9/6 13/9, 11/9 B/21, 15/11, 8/4(2)* 23/18, 6/3*Chris Yep B/21, 16/11 8/4, 5/3(2)* 24/18 17/14, 9/8 13/5* 13/9, 11/9 B/21, 13/9(3) 23/18, 6/3*
