Alan Alsop: 23/17, 4/3*.I am not in favour of another man back at this stage of the game. But it could be a necessary risk with the right sort of play. Running with the 6 is right here. All the way is another matter. Leaving a double shot and allowing White the freedom of choice, including consolidating his back men could be helping your opponent too much. As Blue has doubled he must be aggressive and force White back. I will go for the above move.
Chuck Bower: 23/16.
My third choice isn't even listed as a candidate: 13/7, 8/7. Thissolid play doesn't address Blue's primary goal of getting the backchecker over White's 4-prime. After 23/17 the obvious ace is thecontinuation 17/16 giving White 21 shots but no double shots. 4/3* hasseveral things going for it: leaves fewer shots (19 vs. 21), activatesan awkwardly stacked checker, keeps White off balance and ups the gammonfraction. The downside is pretty severe, however -- two blots.Trying to get one out of White's snare, 4/3* risks getting TWO inthe mire. I'm going with a Rob Maier principle (even if he'd ratherbe playing bridge): "the cute play is usually wrong". 23/16.
Nigel Buchan: 23/16.
Hit, run, or block, all looks good if they work 23/17,4/3 maybe. But why risk a shot with that racing lead. It has to be 23/16 and duplicate 4&1.
Neil Kazaross: 8/2*, 4/3*.
Two plays stand out to me here and they involve different plans. One isto run with 23-16 noting the nice race lead and the builders ready to pounce next roll if White cannot hit in the outfield. Plan B is to simply pound away at White's two blots now, noting our array of builders to follow up which means that White will likely be gammoned off the board if he misses the 21 number shot. White may also hit with a dance and then we'll be alright if we enter. It might look strange to hit and leave two inside blots when we are ahead in the race and have only 1 rear checker, but I slightly prefer to try for the gammon now, rather than leaving a double outfield shot so I vote to play 2x,3x !!.
George Klitsas: 23/17, 4/3*.
The bold 8/2* 4/3* is tempting but quite wrong in this position -even if White fans, Blue is not a favorite to make both of the slotted points. If White return-hits one of the blots, he becomes a favorite to cash the game in a few rolls. The quiet 23/16 is plausible, but, best of all is the aggressive 23/17 4/3* (better, in my opinion, than a similar [strategically] play, namely 23/22 8/2*). With the suggested play, Blue uses the right builder, the one from the overloaded four play and not the spare from the eight point and tries to make his points in order.
Hannu Lyyjynen: 23/16.
The top priority is to leap the prime and win the race, not to get involved in a blot hitting contest. If White hits, it's not for free: hitting with one does not make the anchor and hitting with four concedes the midpoint.
Snowie: 23/16.
I am ahead in the race. White's board is as strong as mine. Having asecond checker sent back could be a disaster. My game plan is to run homeand win, and 23/16 follows that plan. If White misses, that's great. IfWhite hits, I only have one man back and everything else is intact. Hittingloose here is not a good idea.
Marty Storer: 23/16.
Everything has drawbacks. Making the bar isn't even listed. The five prime is very tempting, but White gets to roll first, with 13 shots outside, 4 inside, plus 52, 22 and 11 to make the 8 point. The double hit is also tempting, but very big because any return is a huge swing in White's favor. Failing a hit, White may stay in the game by rolling two successive 1's or by hitting on the next turn. Single hits are likewise big, and allow White a double shot at a return hit or a decent low anchor. When in doubt, weenie out. The best weenie play looks like 23/16, minimizing blots and shots, and trying to race when ahead. When White misses, Blue is in very good shape; when he hits, Blue still has plenty of static advantages and may even return hit.
Bob Stringer: 23/16.
My first reaction was 23/17, 4/3*. The position is inflexible, andhitting on the 3 point looks like a reasonable try to improve mystructure. But the swing after this play is big: if White misses*and* I cover that's a tremendous improvement; but if White hits(or even double hits), life is not good. In the end, leaving twoblots looks like it's too much, and so 23/16 it is.
Casper van der Tak: 8/2*, 4/3*.
This might well be the odd choice out, but I like it. There are three plays that have merit: 23/17 4/3*; 23/16 and 8/2* 4/3*. 8/2* 23/22 and 13/7 8/7 do not look like real contenders, the latter not due to the positions of the spares on Blue's prime and the shot on the midpoint, combined with the difficulty in escaping the back checker; the first one not since it hits on the wrong point, and does not use one of the ugly stack on the 4.Now concentrating on the top three
23/16 - Escapes the last checker, and leaves 21 shots. Duplicates anchoring ones. Leaves only one blot.
23/17 43* - Escapes the last checker, and leaves 17 shots. Duplicates anchoring twos. Levase two blots, and leaves 5 double hits and one number that hits and makes a solid 5-prime. White dances with 9 rolls. On balance, this looks very slightly better to me than 23/16, even though White's 3s are costly. Blue is very happy when White dances
8/2* 4/3*- A different approach, the blitz. Perhaps indicated since White has the somewhat better prime, and Blue has an abundance of spares. Look also at the ease of follow up: 1s, 2s, 3s, 4s 5s and 6s all cover... Blue is very happy if White dances (9 numbers) or enters with one but misses (6 numbers). 21 numbers hit, but in 12 cases White will still have a checker on the roof. In that case, Blue is on roll, and also has a checker on the roof. A dynamical position where the first strike capacity is very important. Double hits: only 3. Single hits, entering two checkers: 6 number. Only in the last 9 cases does Blue become a clear underdog.
I like the double hit, which provides very high gains when it works.
Kit Woolsey: 8/2*, 4/3*.
Anything is going to leave several shot numbers. Given that, it seemsbest to fire both barrels and hit two. My builders are decently placedto carry out a blitz. If White doesn't hit back, I should have have agood chance to follow through with the attack. If White does hit back hemay still have one checker on the bar, and I could win the blot-hittingcontest.
Chris Yep: 23/17, 4/3*.
Blue is way ahead in the race, and with only one man back, it's thematic to race. 23/16 and 23/17 4/3* both try to race. They both leave White about the same number of shots (23/16 gives White 23 shots; 23/17 4/3* gives White only 19 shots, but 5 double hits). However, I have a slight preference for 23/17 4/3* since it unstacks the heavy 4 point on White's blot. The gains appear to be more than worth the risk of being sent back 22 pips. Blue has two other moves to consider. 23/22 8/2* minimizes shots, but fails to jump White's prime and strips Blue's 8 point. Finally 8/2* 4/3* attacks and clearly wins more gammons at the expense of more losses. Is it worth it? It's hard for me to tell, but the deciding factor for me was the status of Blue's 8 point. If Blue had an extra checker on the 8 point (say from the 4 pt.), then I would attack, but here I think Blue does better trying to escape. Overall I prefer 23/17 4/3*.
Summary: The concensus vote was to run, and I will admit that thearguments for running make sense. Still, two on the bar is awfullytempting.
