Chuck Bower: 11/5, 6/5.Hits don't seem productive...yet! Blocking a single back checkeris usually a weak gameplan unless you've already built most ofthe prime. My plan is to build the homeboard, while attacking ifthe latter is possible. Not this roll, so I just build thediamond point. If hit, I have a strong defensive structure tofall back on.
George Klitsas: 11/5, 6/5.
I would not really object, if my partner in a chouette wanted to play the safer 22/16 11/10, but I prefer the bold 11/5 6/5. Blue, with no hitting taking place, is a big underdog in the race and making his five point (always a consideration, for it can very rarely be a bad move) is risking little to gain a lot. Nine numbers do not escape and some more are awkward for White, like a 54. Even the hitting 63, gives Blue the opportunity to come back in equal terms with a hitting 3 from the bar. Making the 5 point is my choice.
Laila Leonhardt: 22/16, 11/10.
Blue wants to contain White in the homeboard, so avoiding direct blots there is a good idea. In the same time Blue wants to have outfield control if White tries to escape and it is not final if Blue gets hit and might even later gain if the hit means White has to break his midpoint and the contact with the back checker.
Snowie: 11/5, 6/5.
I have to build now. Plays which try to prevent White from escaping nextroll, such as hitting loose or makign the ten point, don't figureto work. My board is too weak. If White doesn't escape after my playI will have something to work with, and if White does escape I willfall back on defense. Getting hit here isn't so bad, since I am wellbehind in the race anyway and I can use a second anchor.
Marty Storer: 22/21, 10/4*.
Making the 5 point is tempting, but I think it's a bit muchto allow simultaneous hit and escape with most 6's, all 7's,and a few other numbers. Time and again I've seen hittingplays turn out best in positions like this. White is threateningto escape; escaping would be a big gain; therefore hitting mustbe strong. Blue is well behind in the race and so fears beinghit much less than he fears White's escape. After 10/4*, the1 that seems to concede the least is 22/21. Blue would ratherkeep the trailer on the 22 point where it's less exposed, butall other 1's look worse.
Bob Stringer: 22/21, 10/4*.
I though hard about 11/5, 6/5, but can't bring myself to giveWhite *both* a 6 and a 7 to hit -- even though in this race Idon't mind being hit all that much. I think I'd rather work onpreventing White's escaping, and the best way to do that is tohit. So then the question is how to play the 1. I'd much rathermake my 4 point than the 3, so 4/3 is out. 8/7 is out because itleaves too many blots. 6/5? Err, no thanks. That leaves 22/21.Sure, that makes it a bit easier for White to dump checkers intohis home board, but I'm not going to be keeping that checker backthere for long anyway.
Casper van der Tak: 22/21, 10/4*.
Blue has three different choices available: anything that hits 10/4*, building the 5-point (11/5 6/5), and building the 10-point (22/16 11/10). In all cases, Blue should aim to contain White's back checker, build his board, and attack.
First, if we decide on 10/4*, what 1 should go with that. Not 4/3, which only slots a worse point. 8/7, 6/5 and 11/10 are all rather loose, and make it more difficult to win frontward (they might make it easier to win backward though). I'd play 22/21 with the hit., which retains reasonable chances of winning frontward and backward. Now three candidates remain: 22/16 11/10, 11/5 6/5 and 22/21 10/4*
11/5 6/5 leaves 18 shots (that at the same time go a long way towards escaping), and 5 additional escaping rolls, but if it works does most towards Blue's game plan of building his board and attacking White. 22/21 10/4* leaves 15 shots and one roll that escapes completely. 7 rolls escape partly. It also works towards building the board. Finally, 22/16 11/10 is a bit more difficult to quantify. Note that White hits on the 9 point are not very effective; they leave additional blots and hinder White in consolidating the position and escaping the back checker. So I am not going to count hits on the 9, except for those that are really convenient (11, 22, 44). Then 22/16 11/10 leaves 9 hits, 6 of which escape partly, and 5 more clean escaping rolls. It works towards containing White's checker by bringing in an additional checker for outfield control.
Adding it all up, I believe that White's escapes too often after 11/5 6/5. Admittedly it is most effective when not White does not hit or escape, but there are simply too many number that do either. 22/16 11/10 leaves the same number of clean escapes as 11/5 6/5, and if White escapes cleanly I believe Blue is better off having made the 5. And also after being hit, 11/5 6/5 works better. The advantage of 22/16 11/10 is that it does not get hit often. I am not sure which of the two is better.
After this analysis, I'd play 22/21 10/4* pushing White back and hindering his escape. Limiting the number of clear escapes and semi-escapes is the most important consideration. If missed, Blue is in a reasonable position to win frontwards.
OTB I would probably play 22/16 11/10.
Kit Woolsey: 11/5, 6/5.
The problem with any of the other plays is that they lack a powerfulfollow-through when they work. Making the five point gives my positionsome punch if White doesn't escape, and if he does I still have my defensein place.
Chris Yep: 11/5, 6/5.
All candidate moves (except 22/16 11/10) leave a direct shot on Blue's side of the board. Blue is way behind in the race, has more back men, and has an advanced anchor. These factors indicate that Blue should seek out bold plays. Also in the early stages of the game when each side has only a 1-point board it's usually right to grab the 5 point, even at the cost of a direct shot. Though Blue can hit White to stop White from building on the other side of the board, this does not appear to be a great priority since Blue already has an advanced anchor. I like 11/5 6/5.
Summary: Some things never change. The five point is still the fivepoint.
