Chuck Bower: 13/9, 13/7.After this roll Blue will have a 62 pip lead. He canafford to have *one* checker sent back. I'm paying now. Ifit works I gain a lot, and if it fails I'm still in the game.
George Klitsas: 13/3*.I quickly reject 8/2 6/2. The resulting position is much worse than the average player thinks and Blue actually will need a series of jokers to bring it home. After the "conservative" hit [7/3* 7/1], Blue leaves only 11 return shots from the bar, compared to 20, as after 13/3* for example, but the resulting position, without the bar point and with the 8 and mid points still to be cleared, is also difficult to bring home. Therefore, I think it's close between 13/3* [play a] and 13/9 13/7 [play b]. Play a leaves 2 less shots (20 instead of 22, if I counted well) and obviously should win more gammons as well. A serious drawback of play a is that it leaves two blots instead of one. Is this so important in order to make play b preferable? I can't be sure, but my feeling is that this factor does not compensate for the other two just mentioned. It's kind of an illusion - after the sequence //White hits from the bar, Blue dances//, which happens roughly 25% of the time, I don't believe that White has lost hismarket by a clear margin, if at all! After play b, which leaves only one blot, if the blot is hit, Blue usually will face sooner or later a strong, even untakeable double and will save very few games. Difficult to be sure, as I said, but I will go for the bold 13/3*.Laila Leonhardt: 8/2, 6/2.
The cube is turned, and getting hit is pretty much the same as loosing,So Blue must aim to give the least possible shots, but no such plays are available,So play it safe and wait a round and see what the future will bring
Snowie: 8/2, 6/2.
I can afford to have one checker hit, since White's board has a big holeon the four point. The one thing I can't afford is to leave two blots.Therefore, 13/3* is out. 7/3*, 7/1 leaves it too difficult to get homeeven if I get away with it. 13/9, 13/7 is fine if it works, but adouble shot is too much. What is wrong with playing safe? The key is thatWhite's checker on my 11 point isn't going to stay there, since White'can't afford to have me break the midpoint with a relatively safe hit.Once that checker leaves, I can bring one down from the midpoint andleave only one blot and one direct shot. And maybe I'll roll doublesand not have to leave a shot at all. My play may look awkward, butit really isn't that much more difficult to follow up than thealterntives.
Marty Storer: 13/3*.
Despite the two blots and 20(!) shots, this very big play hasa lot going for it. White has 9 fanning numbers, after whichBlue has excellent gammon chances. Actually, Blue wins a fairnumber of gammons if White comes in and misses. So 13/3* isvery good when it works, clearing the midpoint and keepinga fluid position. Both the extreme weenie play 8/2 6/2, andthe hybrid 7/1 7/3*, seem to give up too much shot equityoverall. Finally, if White hits after 13/3*, Blue has a chanceto stay alive by coming in right away. Against a five-pointboard, or perhaps against a four-point board that couldimprove more quickly than White's here, I'd play 8/2 6/2.I think White's forward position is just weak enough thatBlue can afford to try 13/3*.
Bob Stringer: 13/3*.
White's position isn't going to get worse all on its own, and sostripping everything with 8/2, 6/2 to be complete safe doesn'tmake it. 13/9, 13/7 poses a lower gammon risk than the other tworemaining plays, since it leaves a single blot, but it also losesmore games because it's a double shot. My sense is that I have tohit and put the burden on White to hit back. After that, I haven'ta clue. 13/3* solves my problems more quickly *if* it works, butit gives White a direct shot. 7/3* gives him only an indirectshot, but breaking the 7 point and burying a check while I stillhave to clear two men from the midpoint means I'll probably be injeopardy for a longer time than with 13/3*. These two plays couldbe close or one could be significantly better than the other, andI have no idea. I flipped a coin in my head, it came down on13/3*, and that's that.
Casper van der Tak: 13/9, 13/7.
Yuck. I reject 13/3* because if we volunteer 13/7 13/9 seems the way to go despite the additional shots (only one blot, much less repeaters. Leaving only one blot is important, especially since we have considerable life after death given the gap in White's board). That means that we have to chose between 8/2 6/2, 7/1 7/3* and 13/7 13/9. 8/2 6/2 is safe for the moment, but throws away all flexibility. It means probably leaving a series of shots while White's board may be stronger. A pro of the play is that if Blue leaves a shot next turn the number of shots may be less, depending on the number rolled. 7/1 7/3* eliminates a landing point and still leaves 11 shots. I think that both playing safe and 13/7 13/9 are better.
I might be completely wrong, but I would play 13/7 13/9 to keep some spares and playability if hit. We'll get hit more often than after safe, but at least we should be able to fight to survive. And that will be much harder if we have buried all spares.
Kit Woolsey: 13/9, 13/7.
This is going to feel so much better if I get away with it. If I am hit,White has only a four-point board with a hole in it and his buildersare far away, so I will have a decent chance of scrambling out. Thesafe 8/2, 6/2 is just too ugly, and other choices leave a shot as wellas future problems.
Chris Yep: 13/9, 13/7.
It's rarely right to "pay now" into a double-shot, but this position just might qualify. The safe play, 8/2 6/2, looks very awkward -- it piles 5 checkers on the 2 point and leaves a stripped position. Meanwhile White's offense figures to get stronger during the next few rolls. If Blue instead pays now with 13/9 13/7 (giving White 22 shots), he adds a spare to the 7 point and leaves a position that is easy to clean up if he's missed. 13/3* and 7/3* 7/1 are also "pay now" moves. However, 13/3* still leaves 20 shots (including 4 double-hit numbers) and gives Blue two blots to clean up. Though 13/3* likely wins more gammons, the gain in gammons is probably minimal since Blue currently only has a 3-point board. 7/3* 7/1 tries to force White forward, but leaves 11 immediate shots and more to come in the future since Blue still has the problem of clearing his midpoint (now with one fewer landing point). Overall I think 13/9 13/7 is the best "pay now" play and I prefer it to the awkward 8/2 6/2.
Summary: The concensus was to pay now on the very perplexing problem,and the pluarility was even willing to leave a double shot for the improvedstructure. It would be interesting to know what is really right here.
