Chuck Bower: 24/20, 6/1*.When you can't find a good play, count shots. While you're taking forever todo this maybe your opponent will fall asleep and forget to double next roll!24/20, 16/11: 31. 24/20, 13/8: 31. 24/20, 6/1*: 19. 13/4*: 21. 8/4*, 6/1*: 22. The hitting plays leave far fewer shots, so I think the bestmove must be one of those. 8/4*, 6/1* leaves four blots instead of three,which will be harder to clean up. 13/4* is definitely purer than 24/20,6/1*. However, the latter not only has the advantage of two fewer returnshots, but when it works (and White enters without hitting), one blot (onthe acepoint) is temporarilly out of danger, and in the process White'sbackmost checker has been pushed forward where it can be less of amenace. Furthermore, Blue's backmost checker has advanced closer to homeand communicates with Blue's other blot on the 16-point. (I recall thatMarty Storer likes communicating back checkers when opp is on the bar, soI fully expect him to choose this play, too. :)
Steve Clark: 24/20, 16/11.
I really want to play 24-20. White have limited ways to hit me, andeven if he does hit, he will have few checkers close by to cover with.If I do make this play, the most logical 5 seems to be 16-11. Thisprevents White from hitting me and bringing checkers into range of his 5point on the same die. Since White has a much stronger board, I want toavoid creating new blots and make his hits as awkward as possible.24-20, 16-11 seems to be the way.
Ray Fogerlund: 24/20, 6/1*.
A miserable roll. But, I am ahead in the race. So,what to do? I would love to gain the security of an advanced anchor, so stepping up to there seems right. Then, I have to leave a double shot anyway, so might as well duplicate aces by hitting on the ace point. Now, if White rolls a 6, she won't be able to do anything unless she gets an ace with it. Then too, she could get a 6 with her 6, hmmmmmm.... Ever happen to you?
George Klitsas: 24/20, 6/1*.
Confused. A single thought comes into my mind. Blue's back checker (the one in the 24 point) will be a liability in the future, almost independently of what happens elsewhere. So Blue might as well try to get it moving now (24/20), preferably with the tempo hit 6/1*. This move involves duplication of aces, allows Blue to anchor on White's five point in some variations and in some other variations, when the dice dictate that White enters high, Blue will be able to play past White.
Laila Leonhardt: 24/20, 6/1*.
Duplication of 1s. If hit on a 4 in the out field it give an else unusable 4from the bar to hit back.If missed we are back in the game. This doesn't mean we are out of danger,but we avoid having to face a cube and drop next roll.
Rob Maier: 24/20, 13/8.
All the earlier positions where the cube has already been turned, and it's in the center here? I'm not feeling like any more blots here, which leaves out hitting. I'm going to make the play that gives me the best chance of making a defensive point. If the blot on sixteen gets hit, maybe I'll make the twenty, and if nothing gets hit, maybe I can make the sixteen.
Snowie: 24/20, 6/1*.
This is getting serioius. I believe it is important to keep White as busyas possible before he brings any more ammunition into play. 24/20, 6/1*is the safest way to do this. I duplicate White's aces, and if I am hit Iwill have a chance to anchor on White's five point and get some stabilityfor my posiiton. If White misses, I may be able to link my back checkersand again have a playable game. Other alternatives simply give Whitetoo many good things to do and don't have sufficient upside.
Marty Storer: 24/20, 6/1*.
Blue wants to consolidate his racinglead, so minimize shots and double-hits. Blue may linkon the 16 point, or make the 20, after either of which hecan breathe a big sigh of relief. My second choice isanother weenie play, 13/8 24/20, but I don't want togive White the full roll to attack.
Bob Stringer: 24/20, 13/8.
I really, really don't want to leave blots lying around. White's boardis strong and I have nothing. Therefore no hitting, and the questionis what to play with 24/20. 16/11 just leaves too many shots that hit,and so I'll go with the doofus-looking but safe 13/8. This is onewhere I fear my inexperience shows, but if nothing looks good to me,13/8 is what I'm stuck with.
Casper van der Tak: 24/20, 6/1*.
Pretty awkward roll, Blue was entitled to expect something better. The salient features of the position are that White outboards Blue to a considerable degree, Blue has less checkers back, and Blue leads in the race. It follows that sequences in which Blue gets hit are pretty strong for White, so Blue does well to minimize shots and blots. A secondary objective is to continue extricating the back checkers. A tertiary objective is to start building the board.
What plays should we consider?
13/4* - 23 shots and 3 blots
24/20 16/11 - 29 shots and 2 blots
24/20 6/1* - 19 shots and 3 blots
24/20 13/8 - 29 shots and 2 blots
8/4* 6/1* - 23 shots and 4 blots
Hope I counted right!
Compared to 24/20 13/8 and 24/20 16/11, 24/20 leaves 1 more blot but 10 shots less. Seems a worthwhile tradeoff, especially since the 24/20 6/1 takes away half of White's roll and may force White forward.
Compared to 13/4*, 24/20 6/1* leaves less shots and the same number of blots. Moreover, it is better for extricating the back checker. 13/4* has the advantage of starting a better point, but that is not very important in this position, and Blue is also more likely to leave a shot next turn after 13/4* than after 24/20 6/1*
Compared to 8/4* 6/1*, 24/20 6/1* leaves less shots and less blots, and is better for extricating the back checker. The other comments made about 13/4* also apply here, and the more so.
Conclusion: clearly the strongest is 24/20 6/1* - getting the first hit in IS important.
Kit Woolsey: 24/20, 6/1*.
It is important to escape, and we don't want White to get those checkerson the midpoint into play or to bring more checkers around safely. 24/20, 6/1*appears to accomplish what we want better than anything else. White ison the bar so he can only use half his roll, and if he doesn't roll an aceor a four we will have a chance to link our back checkers and consolidateour position. If we are hit, we may be able to anchor on White's five point.
Chris Yep: 24/20, 6/1*.
Blue has an awkward position. He has three large stacks of checkers and to make things worse, he doesn't even have the luxury of playing behind White. Furthermore White's board is starting to become threatening. Given this I think Blue should play 24/20 6/1*. It has the advantages of minimizing shots (20 shots by my quick count: all 1s, 2-4, 3-4, 5-4, 2-2, 4-4, and 5-5), slotting the 20 point (useful in case White hits one of the other blots), and hitting White off the ace point (useful so that Blue has the option of playing behind White whenever White has to enter higher up in Blue's board).
Summary: Desperate rolls call for desperate plays. The panelsaw the necessity of the temp gain from the loose hit on the ace pointdespite White's stronger inner board. Other plays are too passive.
