Chuck Bower: 7/1*.One problem each month gives me the most headaches, and for August this is it.7/1* looks thematic (better to attack a lone back checker than to prime it).Let's try and find the best non-hitting play and then compare it to 7/1*.With the back two checkers efficiently blocked, it looks like splitting them(23/22) takes away some of White's sting, at least until more builders are brought into place. 23/18 looks too risky since it makes it easier forWhite to make that powerful point by hitting loose and simultaneously slotting.8/3 is efficient (my style), but gives White a lot of good rolls now, andis hard to clean up. 13/8 makes a 5-prime, duplicates some of White's acesand is easy to clean up if the blot is missed. This looks like the best choice among the non-hitting plays.
7/1* leaves 15 return shots which are clearly bad for Blue. With 23/22, 13/8,White hits with 11 numbers and makes a strong point with five more (6-3, 6-6, 3-3, 3-6, and 5-5). Just counting bad returns (and not assigning a weight),it looks like the plays are about equal. The 16 White fans after the hit areall really good, while 23/22, 13/8 doesn't give White many immediate problemssince most rolls allow him to diversify builders.
This position seems to boil down to a choice of playing to your own strength(the prime) or taking advantage of the opponent's weakness (blot on youracepoint). It looks like when things go badly after 7/1*, they are much worsethan after 23/22, 13/8, but when they go well, they are much better. A stalemate? I'm not much for the overused cliche "when in doubt, hit."However, if two plays appear close and only one of them involves hitting,I like to come down on the 'hit' side of the fence.
Malcolm Davis: 23/22, 23/18.
Coming out with the 5 seems mandatory - I am ahead inthe race. I don't like leaving the blot on the 8-point, making 5-2 good, but the potential to make the 22-point if hit on the 18 appears to outweigh this liability.
Hal Heinrich: 23/22, 13/8.
Blue is up in the race and losing the timing battle. That makes 23/22pretty much mandatory. Going to the eighteen gives White too manyattacking chances - which leaves 13/8.
George Klitsas: 23/22, 13/8.
I like 13/8 23/22. The split is a must and aces are partially duplicated.
Laila Leonhardt: 23/22, 8/3.
Blue is running out of timing to hold his prime and White has several builders to complete his.As tempting as it is to hit loose on the ace point and try to get out of White's iron grip right away, it could be a costly move. Blue could find himself with 3 or 4 checkers behind White's prime and no prime of his own. Slotting the 18 point that White strives to make, doesn't not seem to gain anything for Blue either. Blue wants to aim for flexibility, if White makes the bar, Blue might be able to make the 3 point, if White hits the blot in Blue's home board Blue will have a change to anchor up again. And by keeping his prime White will not be so eager to risk having a checker hit.Blue owning the cube here is his weapon and he should pressure White to get into giving Blue a chance to pick up another White checker.
Rob Maier: 23/22, 13/8.
If we didn't have such a nice five on our side of the board, I wouldn't have any problem with coming out. As it is, the simple split is sufficient. The ace shot on the other side of the board is unpleasent, but this gives us the best chance to extricate our own checkers while containing the one we have trapped.
Kevin McGrath: 23/22, 13/8.
The 8 point makes a prime, however tenuous. The split looks best and getting hit might not be fatal.
Martin Short: 23/22, 13/8.
Any move with 23/18 is just asking for a counterprimebut I have to get those back checkers moving. I amalmost out of checkers to play constructively so Iwill split to the 22pt hoping to get out next roll.With the 5 I extend my broken prime making escapetougher and hope White doesnt roll a 1.
Snowie: 23/22, 13/8.
We can't afford to leave both back checkers stuck on the 23 point. However,coming up to the enemy bar point gives White too many good numbers. 23/22, 13/8is a good compromise. Lengthening our blockade to a five-prime can't hurtmatters, and after the split we can escape a back checker with fours, fives,and sixes. Leaving the direct ace shot on the midpoint isn't good, but evenif that blot is hit we have ways to survive.
Marty Storer: 23/22, 13/8.
There's hardly anything else. Ittakes a very long parlay to make 7/1* work, with ahuge risk of getting one or more checkers hit. Playswith 23/18 are also very risky, allowing White agood chance to attack on valuable points. The 8point may look foolish in combination with the 2 point,but it's not chopped liver, it completes a solid five-prime.The 1-shot on the midpoint is partly duplicated to makeWhite's bar point. After 13/8, Blue has to split theback checkers before things get worse. Blue actuallyhas a decent chance to make this big-looking play work.
Bob Stringer: 23/18, 8/7.
The back men have to run some time, and while I don't like givingWhite the chance to hit on a point that he wants to make, if I givehim more time he may just make it without having to hit me. I'd liketo split instead, but am not comfortable with breaking the midpoint.
Casper van der Tak: 7/1*.
I have no clue about this position. 23/22 13/8 may be an alternative idea, to improve the prime, but that looks awfully blotty. 23/18 8/7 may be an idea as well, but after hit and miss Blue is doing very badly.
I have to decide on something, and I picked 7/1*, which has the advantage that I know what to do afterwards. This may sound strange, but sometimes I let my decisions be guided by whether I'd know what to do next. The other plays leave messy types of positions that are not clear to me how to handle, whereas the hit makes it clear what to do afterwards - cover and escape.
Kit Woolsey: 23/22, 23/18.
We are ahead in the race and we have a stronger board, but we have twocheckers back to Blue's one back checker. This indicates that the timingwill go against us if we don't get the back men moving fast. We don't wantto get stuck on the 23 point with our sixes blocked. Moving both backcheckers is the way to avoid this. We may get battered around a bit, butthat less dangerous than being stuck on the 23 point.
Chris Yep: 23/18, 8/7.
With a racing lead and a second back man Blue is losing the priming battle. Fortunately he has the stronger board. 23/18 looks thematic in this position. Although it slots the point that White most wants, Blue will have at least 10 returns from the bar if White hits and stays on his bar point. With the 1 I prefer 8/7 to reduce blots in case White is able to successfully attack.
Summary: The majority of the panel went with making the five-prime atthe cost of losing the midpoint and leaving the direct shot there. The playmay well be best, but I'm not convinced. Blue is going to wish he had thatmidpoint in the future.
