Alan Alsop: 12/11*, 8/5.Hitting is definitely required and to trap as many men in the air as possible because White could have a real chance of wining a running race. White is unlikely to leave a blot in his homeboard for a while. Blue will need to very soon bring men in and leave White an opportunity to expose his back men to Blue's attack. Hence the adventurous move
Chuck Bower: 12/11*, 11/8.
The choice here seems to be: a) get builders in theirbest positions, b) try to get sent back to adjust thetiming, or c) maximizeoutfield shooters. 8/5 looks way too loose. The 5-primeis still pretty valuable. If White doesn't cooperate after 4/1, that's a lost builder. 15/12 only works for one roll, and if White rolls 6-2 or 6-3 it might be betterfor Blue to have moved the builder into place with 11/8,anyway. A tough decision, but I'll just go for the immediate builders.
Ilia Guzei: 15/11*.
Containment is the name of the game. I hit and diversify my numbers in the outfield in case White enters with a 6. If his entering roll is 61 I have enough spares to attack on the 3 point. If he enters with 63 I am glad I have two numbers to hit with. If I am hit with a 62, I just recirculate that checker and use twos to hit him with as 2 is not one of my entering numbers.
Neil Kazaross: 12/11*, 11/8.
Are we hitting or are we going to leave some winning boxes forseveral turns while speculating on the timing that we can squeeze White of the anchor ? Well..I certainly am hitting since 3 men behind a 5 prime don't win very often and still lose some G's and White may enter deep and get squeezed with a 6 later. After hitting I slightly prefer to continue on to the 8 point. 12-11x-8 for me. I feel that not hitting is a BIG blunder here.
George Klitsas: 15/11*.
I don�t see the point of 12/11* 4/1 - Blue needs the spare on the 4 point in order to point White on if he is obliged to break his anchor with a single 6. I see the point of 12/11* 8/5 (better distribution and more ways [6�s and 5�s] for White to be �trapped� in the future), but I am not convinced, especially if I think of jokers (2-6 from the bar) for White or the possibility that he enters on the 3 point from the bar. From the remaining two candidates, 15/11* controls better the outfield and gets my vote.
Laila Leonhardt: 12/11*, 4/1.
'Gammon is the art of timing'
No doubt we need to hit with the ace. Blue very much would like to win agammon here, and best scenario for that is that White is forced of the 3point with a 6, but didn't get that 3rd checker away from the 1 or 2 pointyet.
This can well be a game that will re-circulate many times before the finaloutcome and Blue's main purpose is to keep getting timing for his plan.Slotting both the 1 and 2 point will optimize that chance.
Snowie: 12/11*, 11/8.
Simple play. Hit, and bring the builder into position to cover the twopoint next turn. I don't need to do anything fancy here.
Marty Storer: 15/11*.
I used to analyze similar positions decades ago, andI would 'bout always conclude hitting the third checker was right.It's good insurance against White's 66, and it generally increasesgammon chances; here, White can fail to enter on the 22, thenthe ball can pop loose with some 6, and there are three targetsstaggering around instead of two; yum. I don't like 12/11* 4/1;too antipositional, with slightly more chance of accidents;recirculation equity not worth those drawbacks I don't think.Break the five-point prime, 12/11* 8/5? No, thanks, not quite yet!No double hits nor hit-fans wanted; that two-point boarddeserves some respect.
Bob Stringer: 12/11*, 11/8.
Breaking the 8 point is terrible; there's no reason to make iteasier for White to leap into the outfield. But otherwise I wentaround and around on this one. 4/1 looks clever, and I almostbought it. The idea is that if I'm hit, all I have to do isrecirculate that checker, during which time White may roll a 6before he moves the third checker to my 3 point, thereby giving mea change to close him out. If he comes in on the 3, the positionplays pretty much the same as it would if I hadn't played 4/1. Andif White doesn't immediately enter and hit, both open inner boardpoints will have been started, and so I'll be in a good positionto make one of them. But since 4/1 creates the potential for weirdthings to happen, I'm guessing it increases my gammon chances anddecreases my overall winning chances. Do the increased gammonscompensate for the fewer wins? I can't tell at all, and that's whyI reject it; it's just too much of a shot in the dark. That leavestwo possibilities. 11/8 aims another builder at the 2 point, andthat more than makes up for the neater looking 15/11*.
Casper van der Tak: 12/11*, 8/5.
Kit is protecting everybody against being too clever by not hitting� Not hitting could be motivated by the wish to squeeze White of the anchor, but actually results in less wins and less gammons & backgammons. The proper strategy is to hit, and to hope that White enters on the ace or deuce and is squeezed of his anchor, so that three checkers can be closed out to maximize gammon and backgammon chances.
I think 8/5 after the hit is indicated to squeeze White off with 6s and 5s. Next in line is covering the deuce, and keep the squeeze going.
A key factor behind this play is White�s weak board. If three points would still remain, I would play the more simple 12/11*/8
Kit Woolsey: 12/11, 4/1.
That spare checker on the four point isn't doing us any good there. Itneeds to get into play, either making a new inner board point or recirculatingto help pick up a fleeing checker. Either way, playing 4/1 with theace has to be right. If White rolls an ace we are happy to be hit -- thisgives us more time to execute the squeeze and more checkers in the outfieldto hit an escaping checker.
Chris Yep: 12/11*, 11/8.
Blue is a big favorite to win and could win a lucky gammon if he can trap White off the anchor. 12/11* 8/5 is too aggressive though. Breaking the prime is ok, but leaving 3 outfield blots and one inner board blot risks way too much. I have a hard time differentiating between the other 3 moves. However since White still has reasonable winning chances and Blue has a lot of work to do to close out 2 or more checkers, I slightly favor a more conservative approach. Thus I prefer 15/11* and 12/11*/8. 15/11* has the advantage of immediately getting two checkers bearing on the 9 point (Blue gains if White immediately rolls 1-6, 2-6, or 3-6 from the bar), but 12/11*/8 (my choice) has the advantage of keeping a checker back on the 15 (Blue will keep this checker in the outfield for a few turns if convenient), which is better for containment in the long-term.
Summary: Maybe this play isn't such a big deal. Still, the propertechnique for carrying out a squeeze while avoiding a disaster if theopponent hops out can be important. I can't believe it is right tosacrifice one of our precious outfield checkers so soon.
