Chuck Bower: 6/4*, 4/3.I see three plays worth discussing. 6/4*, 13/12 is pure. Ithas a lot of downside and a lot of upside. When missed, coveringwon't be automatic. When hit Blue will have a long uphill struggle, although the game is still winnable. This move leadsto the most gammon losses. White has 13 bad rolls and 16 good rolls.
13/10 is very safe. White will have quite a few uncomforablerolls, some which force him to give up his 9-point and others,the 17-point. Sometimes the back checker is left to fend forhimself. 7 bad rolls and no really good rolls.
6/4*/3 is the tweener. White's position can be pretty awkward,even when entering. He still has one checker nicely blocked andmay have a second. The downside for Blue is the stripped position,and a dilly to top the cake. I count 13 bad rolls and 6 goodrolls.
Counting White's good and bad rolls, the pure play is out. Theother two look about equal. The chances for White to stay onthe bar multiple rolls tips the scale towards the tweenerpick-and-pass play.
Doug Doub: 13/12, 6/4*.
This is a very tough problem, with three veryreasonable choices, 13-10; 6-4*-3, and 13-12,6-4*. Blue does not want toget any more men sent back behind White's blockade, but our 4pt is thebiggest point on the board right now, and making it would make a hugeimprovement in our position.
I slightly prefer 13-10 to the pick and pass, because it is unattractive tomove a man behind our key 4pt.
After hitting, 13-12 is clearly better than 23-22, since it cuts down on thereturn shots and gives us more ways of hopping out of White's home board.
The safe play avoids more gammons, but it appears that the extra wins thatgoing after the 4pt will generate will probably produce enough extra wins tocompensate.
George Klitsas: 13/10.
13/10 by a clear margin imo. 23/22 is only restricting Blue's ways of escaping with the back checkers (White has a nice block, but not enough spares to blitz Blue if he elects to escape with a 5, in the initial pattern). Hitting on the four point is usually productive when White fans [although Blue will have to break a point in order to cover], but heavily counterproductive, if White enters and hits somewhere. In some aspect, problem 2 has a remote similarity with problem 1.
Mary Lee Pinkney: 13/12, 6/4*.
I should try to make a 5-point prime by hitting on the 4 point and then move 13/12. This also duplicates 4's. I have 2's, 3's, 6's and 8 to cover the blot on the 4 point next roll if I'm not hit.
If I do get hit next roll it's not the end of the world.
Snowie: 13/12, 6/4*.
Going after the four point is clear. Blue needs something for hismoney here. 13/12 with the ace creates some nice duplication.
Marty Storer: 13/12, 6/4*.
Blue has a chance for a very powerful five-prime,and I see no reason not to go for it. After 6/4*, 13/12 minimizeshitting numbers and keeps the back checkers diversified. If Whitehits back, Blue has a good defensive position and may still beable to improve on his side of the board.
Bob Stringer: 13/10.
Whether or not to hit is a tough one. White has much bettertiming, which suggests hitting -- to me, anyway -- but there's toomuch of a downside. Any 4 or a 3 that enters improves White'sposition a lot. I don't like being passive, but 13/10 keeps theposition relatively level while I pick up my blot.
Casper van der Tak: 13/12, 6/4*.
I expect this problem will lead to a splattering of votes all over the plate. Blue has to decide whether to hit or not, if Blue hits whether to leave the blot or to lift, and if Blue decides to leave the blot, how to do that. Let's take these questions in reverse order.
After 6/4*, Blue has three ways to keep a point slotted: 13/12, 5/4 and 23/22. We can eliminate 23/22, since that leaves White good 4s and 5s, while the blot on the 23-point is in little danger and can escape with a direct 6. The shift 6/4* 5/4 is a smart way of duplicating White's 5s, whereas 13/12 5/4* duplicates 4s. The 5-point is intrinsically stronger than the 4-point, but the shift has the advantage of diversifying Blue's numbers (5s to cover and 6s to escape from the 23 point). Is that enough of an argument for the shift? No I think, since covering the blot and completing the 5-prime with two checkers behind it is more important than escaping from behind White's prime. Note that 13/12 6/4* leaves less shots and more covers than 6/4 5/4*. So if we decide to leave a point slotted, than 13/12 6/4* it is.
How about 6/4*/3? That is relatively safe, but leads to a position that is difficult to improve upon. So Blue would hope that is current prime structure is sufficient to make White stumble, while taking relatively little risk. This is not bad, but too passive for my taste, and I do not like burning the builder on the 6. So if we hit, we play 13/12 with the ace.
13/10 is a better passive play than 6/4*/3. Although it allows White to escape, it doesn't leave blots for White to hit, and retains the option of building a prime against White back checker(s). The problems is that it will be difficult for Blue to build the prime naturally, and if White only has one checker back building the prime is nice, but far from turning the game around.
So 13/12 6/4*
Kit Woolsey: 13/12, 6/4*.
The hit on the four point looks like a must. If I win the fight forthat point I will have a good advantage, but if White anchors thereI have nothing. I think it is worth leaving the blot there in orderto try to make the point. 6/4*, 4/3 takes a checker out of play whenI have few enough checkers to work with. I believe 13/12 is theright ace. This removes White's good fives, replacing them with fourswhich already hit. My checker on the 23 point can see daylight, so advancingit isn't vital.
Chris Yep: 13/10.
As in problem 1, since White has a broken prime and 4 back men, he is not threatening an attack. Thus, 23/22 doesn't gain much. Blue is also not threatening much of an attack himself, so hitting loose, even on the best available inner board point, is less attractive than usual. Note also that 6/4* takes away Blue's last 6-point spare. 6/4*/3 is possible, but leaves Blue with a stripped and awkward position, with not enough gain in my opinion. I like 13/10, keeping most game plans open next turn.
Summary: The majority of the panel was willing to go all out afterthe four point, even though the back checkers are in trouble and thereis plenty of risk involved. I believe this is a wise decision.
