Chuck Bower: 13/7, 10/7.White is getting some shots, regardless, but the running playleaves way too many. Hitting loose might gain, but it mightlose. Making the barpoint is a sure positional gain, regardless.I'll take the guaranteed progress with chances for even betterimprovements if White doesn't roll well.
Doug Doub: 13/7, 10/7.
Thematically, it make sense to attack with 8-2* andthen either step up with the back man or cover the 10pt with the three.This approach attempts to exploit our stronger inner board and preventsWhite from escaping and hitting at the same time.
However, our bar point is a very good asset, and making it also cleans upa blot. The potential long term gains of having the bar point shouldprovide adequate compensation for the risk of White's hitting the blot onour 8pt.
George Klitsas: 13/7, 10/7.
I make the bar point. Any conceivable alternative leaves at least a direct shot, so why not have a strong blockade if I am missed by White?I am fairly sure about this one.
Mary Lee Pinkney: 24/21, 8/2*.
With the 6, I think it's best to hit White on the 2 point since I can't cover my man sitting six points away on the 8 point. I also have the stronger inner board (3 points to 2).
Then with the 3, move out to the edge of White's 4-point prime with 24/21 so that I can hopefully escape next roll, or anchor on this 21 point if my man on the 2 point gets hit. I am ahead in the race so I need to either escape or anchor at the edge of White's prime so that I don't end up getting trapped.
Snowie: 24/21, 8/2*.
I have the stronger inner board, and I need to escape his back checker.Hitting loose on the two point takes advantage of my strength, andadvancing the back checker works on my goal.
Marty Storer: 24/21, 8/2*.
Always Hit! Blue has to leave a direct shot somewhere,and hitting is the only way to deprive White of his full roll next time.The swing if White fans is tremendous. 13/10 is a reasonable 3, makinga decent point, minimizing return shots, and trying to press the attack.But 24/21 is escape-oriented, and escaping is very desirable. In termsof short-term tactics: If White misses the return, Blue is happy to havehis back checker at the edge of White's four-prime. If White hits, Bluedoesn't mind a direct shot to anchor on the 21 point. I definitely prefer24/21 to 13/10.
Bob Stringer: 24/21, 8/2*.
24/15 leaves too many shots. Making the bar point isn't bad, butit doesn't make my board quite as strong as it looks at firstblush, since the 3 and 9 points don't go together. Also, havingthe stronger board I can afford to be a little aggressive. So, itlooks like 8/2* plus something is my choice. 24/21 gets the nod,since I don't urgently need to cover the 10 point right now, andputting the back checker on the 21 point puts him in a position toescape while White has a man in the air. If White enters byhitting on the 2 point, at least I then have a chance of makinghis 4 point.
Casper van der Tak: 24/21, 8/2*.
Does Blue want to win this as a prime vs. prime game? In principle no, Blue is ahead in the race, has a broken prime where White has a solid prime, and owning the 9- and 3-point at the same time is also not good for priming. Blue's advantages are his lead in the race, and the advantage in home-board points with quite some material in the zone. This seems to indicate a blitzing plan, or a plan focused on converting to a race. 13/7 10/7 is therefore not attractive, and also leaves a bunch of shots. 24/15 escapes, but leaves 26 shots, and is therefore also not attractive. It looks like we are going to look at attacking 8/2*. What 3 to go with that? 13/10 does not provide additional covers, and only works for the 4-point, whereas 24/21 helps a lot for the escape plan. So if we hit 24/21 8/2* it is. Counting shots, we see that this leaves only 17 returns. It is consistent with Blue's hitting and escaping plan, so 24/21 8/2* it is.
Kit Woolsey: 24/21, 8/2*.
I can make my bar point, but that just leaves White a shot at myblot on the eight point and leaves my back checker stranded. I want toadvance that back checker. If I do so, I must combine with a hit as otherwiseWhite will have too many good numbers. I do have a three-point board toWhite's two-point board, so I don't mind the action.
Chris Yep: 24/21, 8/2*.
Among the plays that hit loose, I prefer 24/21 8/2*. While 24/21 makes a significant step toward escaping the last back man, 13/10 makes a somewhat smaller improvement (making the 10 point in exchange for stripping the midpoint). Among the other moves, 24/15 gives White too many good numbers, while 13/7 10/7 improves Blue's prime and future attack at the cost of stripping the midpoint and not moving the back man. Overall, 24/21 8/2* looks like the most balanced move. It moves to the edge of White's prime while simultaneously putting him on the bar. Except for jokers, White can't point on Blue's head. If a hitting contest ensues, Blue has the better board. Since Blue has a big race lead and fewer men back, it is thematic to play safely, but there is no reasonable safe play available. 24/21 8/2* takes the best advantage of Blue's assets (a stronger inner board), while making gains on both sides of the board.
Summary:The majority of the panel recognized the importance of theloose hit on the two point. Making the bar point is simply too passive.
